TALLAHASSEE – With Florida still in the throes of an affordable housing crisis, the next occupant of the White House could play a major role in determining how long the Sunshine State struggles with prices too high and a supply too small.
Florida single-family home construction is in the middle of a projected four-year downturn , the first real slump since 2009.
It’s made apartments harder to find and costlier. And it fuels median home sale prices, which hit a record high $429,900 in April, state economists said.
But Florida’s woes are like those in many states. In a pocketbook appeal to voters in this drum-tight contest, Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump have both rolled out significant – but vastly different – housing proposals.
“If there’s one state that would be a prime beneficiary of major legislation to address housing supply, it’s Florida,” said Ned Murray, a housing expert at Florida International University. “We could be the biggest because of the need and the disconnect in the state’s housing market in terms of demand and what’s actually being built on the ground.”
Shortages, despite all that construction
Still, it seems like Florida is always under construction.
A drive down Florida’s Turnpike or Interstate 75 sends motorists past billboard after billboard promoting retirement communities, In coastal cities, high-rise developments climb skyward in a bid to reach coveted water views.
But these niche markets don’t meet all the needs of Florida’s rising population.
Working families seeking to put down roots in the state can face long odds, with only 25 affordable and available rental homes for every 100 extremely low-income renters, according to the National Low Income Housing Coalition.
Almost 600,000 Florida households fall into the category, having either an annual income of $31,240 for a family of four, or only 30% of their region’s median income, whichever is greater, according to the coalition.
Housing shortages also ripple upward through higher income categories.
“A lot of people that are struggling to find housing may be single or just a couple,” said Anne Ray, manager of the Florida Housing Data Clearinghouse at the University of Florida’s Shimberg Center for Housing Studies.
“If there are only large houses out there, that’s what people are forced to consider renting or buying even if they could live with something smaller,” she added. “So having a variety of housing would be a better approach toward attacking these shortages.”
The problem – supply
FIU’s Murray said it comes down to one thing.
“We just don’t have the supply,” he said. “What’s being built is addressing an external investor market for the most part, like retirees and out-of-state or foreign buyers.
“But what we need is something almost like what the nation did in promoting veterans housing after World War 2, four to five million houses being built. Only the federal government can make that happen,” he added.
Problem has been with us a while Sizzling housing market in Florida hurts many, but help slow to come from legislature
A history of diverting housing cash Florida’s affordable housing fund is a frequent target for Republican lawmakers
Harris, in her plan unveiled last month, is trying to unleash some of that federal power.
What Harris would do
Proposing tax cuts to spur construction, Harris wants three million new starter homes and rentals built nationwide in four years, on top of what homebuilders already plan. Developers finished only 1.5 million homes last year.
A $40 billion federal fund Harris wants would support local innovations for more affordable housing.
Harris also would provide $25,000 in down-payment assistance for first-time homebuyers, an approach similar to Florida’s Hometown Heroes program, launched in 2022 but which has struggled to keep up with demand.
To reduce red tape and housing costs, Harris also would streamline permitting and add incentives for development close to transit and for converting outdated homes. She would even make some federal lands eligible for repurposing to affordable housing.
What Trump would do
Trump, who made his fortune in real estate, also promises to reduce regulations and open swaths of federal land for large-scale housing construction, in what his campaign said would be “ultra-low-tax and low-regulation zones.”
Trump’s campaign said, “Millions of Americans will take part in settling these safe and beautiful communities.”
Housing takes up one of the eight pillars – others include cutting taxes, increasing efficiency and expanding energy production—as part of Trump’s push to “Make America Affordable Again.”
But a lot of his housing ideas are light on specifics and heavy on aspirational goals.
“As inflation is tamed, interest rates will fall dramatically – reducing mortgage rates back down to 3% and saving the average homebuyer thousands of dollars per year,” the campaign said of Trump’s plan, included as part of a fiscal agenda he laid out recently to the New York Economic Club.
But Trump’s housing vision could be undermined by another of his central campaign pledges – the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants.
Trump allies say housing would be freed-up by these deportations. But the move also would likely reduce the construction work force, potentially limiting the new housing supply.
Florida may provide a glimpse into what deportations could do. Gov. Ron DeSantis’ signing of a 2023 state law cracking down on undocumented immigrants drove many out-of-state, spawning labor shortages the state’s farming, construction and tourism industries are still grappling with.
Housing answers will take time
Whoever wins the White House in November will likely confront a public expecting immediate change across a wide spectrum of issues.
Housing, though, won’t be turned around quickly, experts say.
“This housing problem didn’t happen overnight,” said UF’s Ray. “And there’s a big, big gulf now between housing needs and what’s available. This is gong to take some time to correct.”
John Kennedy is a reporter in the USA TODAY Network’s Florida Capital Bureau. He can be reached at jkennedy2@gannett.com , or on X at @JKennedyReport .
This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: With prices high and supply low, can Florida expect help from Harris, Trump housing plans?
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