The storm hit east of the mouth of the Aucilla River, 10 miles west-southwest of Perry. Maximum sustained winds at landfall were 140 mph.
A catastrophic and deadly storm surge is likely along portions of the Florida Big Bend coast, where inundation could reach as high as 20 feet above ground level, along with destructive waves, forecasters warned.
“Water is the deadliest threat in a hurricane. There is an extreme risk of a devastating storm surge,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.
The danger from storm surge won't be limited to near where landfall takes place. There's also a "danger of life-threatening storm surge along the remainder of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula," the Hurricane Center said.
'Once-in-a-generation storm': How strong will Hurricane Helene get?
AccuWeather expert meteorologists said "140- to 150-miles-per-hour wind gusts are possible along the Gulf Coast where Helene makes landfall, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax of 160 mph. A widespread zone of 40- to 60-miles-per-hour winds will extend across most of Florida and much of the Southeast as Helene pushes inland."
“Helene has the potential to become a once-in-a-generation storm,” warned AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter. “People in the path of this storm need to be prepared for power outages hundreds of miles away from where Helene makes landfall that could last for a week or more.”
The Hurricane Center said "the amount of strengthening will likely depend on how much the inner core can contract and consolidate. The HWRF and HMON models show significant strengthening to Category 4 status, while most of the other models are a little lower. The main message is that Helene will likely make landfall as a large major hurricane in the Florida Big Bend this evening."
Where will Hurricane Helene make landfall? Don't focus on 'short-term wobbles'
After landfall, Helene is expected to interact with a deep-layer trough over the Lower Mississippi Valley and swing back to the northwest and stall near the Tennessee Valley late Friday into the weekend.
“AccuWeather expert meteorologists expect this to be a highly impactful storm,” AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter said. “This could be the storm that the 2024 hurricane season is remembered for.”
After Helene moves inland, it is forecast to track over Georgia and then slow down or stall over the Tennessee Valley, the National Hurricane Center said.
"As #Helene continues to approach the coast, please do not get overly focused on short-term wobbles in its track, "false" eye locations, or on specific computer model simulations," the National Hurricane Center posted on X, formerly known as Twitter.
"EVERYONE along the Florida Big Bend coast is at risk of potentially catastrophic storm surge and damaging hurricane-force winds later this evening, and life-threatening storm surge is already increasing along the west coast of Florida."
Don't focus on the cone! Helene is large storm, impacts will be widespread
Use the slider to compare the old cone of concern to the experimental version now posted by the National Hurricane Center.
Helene is a very large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles,
To put it into perspective, at its widest, Florida is 361 miles wide from the Perdido River to the Atlantic Ocean, according to the Florida Department of State. The Florida Peninsula ranges in width from 100 to 140 miles wide.
"Comparing the system with previous hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico over the past couple of decades, Helene is at the upper bound in terms of size," The Hurricane Center said. "As a result, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend far away from the center and well outside the forecast cone, particularly on the east side."
"This can be a large hurricane with life-threatening impacts such as storm surge and flooding rain hundreds of miles away from where the storm makes landfall," Porter said.
"Storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will likely extend well away from the center and outside the forecast cone, particularly on the east side," the National Hurricane Center said.
"In addition, the fast forward speed while Helene crosses the coast will likely result in farther inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern United States after landfall."
Most of Florida under state of emergency
Counties under the state of emergency are: Alachua, Baker, Bay, Bradford, Brevard, Calhoun, Charlotte, Citrus, Clay, Collier, Columbia, DeSoto, Dixie, Duval, Escambia, Flagler, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Glades, Gulf, Hamilton, Hardee, Hendry, Hernando, Highlands, Hillsborough, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafayette, Lake, Lee, Leon, Levy, Liberty, Madison, Manatee, Marion, Monroe, Nassau, Okaloosa, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, Putnam, Santa Rosa, Sarasota, Seminole, St. Johns, Sumter, Suwannee, Taylor, Union, Volusia, Wakulla, Walton, and Washington counties.
Hurricane Helene: What you need to know
Location : 70 miles north-northwest of Cedar Key; 45 miles east-southeast of Tallahassee
Maximum sustained winds: 140 mph
Movement : north-northeast at 24 mph
Pressure : 938 mb
Next regular advisory: 5 a.m. Friday
Watches, warnings issued across Florida as Hurricane Helene approaches
A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
Hurricane watch:
Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Storm surge warning:
Mexico Beach eastward and southward to Flamingo
Tampa Bay
Charlotte Harbor
A storm surge warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
Tropical storm warning:
Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas
Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
West of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
Flamingo northward to Little River Inlet
Lake Okeechobee
A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Radar images of Hurricane Helene
How strong is Hurricane Helene and where is it going?
At 9 p.m. EDT, the center of Hurricane Helene was located near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 84.2 West.
Helene is moving toward the north-northeast near 24 mph. A continued fast motion to the north-northeast is expected through landfall in the Florida Big Bend in a few hours.
After landfall, Helene is expected to turn northwestward and slow down over the Tennessee Valley on Friday and Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to 140 mph with higher gusts. Helene is a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible before the center reaches the coast in a few hours.
Weakening is expected after Helene moves inland, but the fast forward speed will allow strong, damaging winds, especially in gusts, to penetrate well inland across the southeastern United States, including over the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians.
Helene is a very large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles.
Albert Whitted airport in St. Petersburg, Florida reported a sustained wind of 53 mph (85 km/h) with a gust to 76 mph.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 942 mb (27.82 inches).
Spaghetti models for Hurricane Helene
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Hurricane Helene
A catastrophic and deadly storm surge is occurring along portions of the Florida Big Bend coast, where inundation could reach as high as 20 feet above ground level, along with destructive waves. There is also a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the remainder of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula.
Catastrophic hurricane-force winds are occurring near the coast within the eyewall of Helene and will spread inland over portions of northern Florida and southern Georgia.
Damaging wind gusts will penetrate well inland over portions of Georgia and the Carolinas tonight, particularly over the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians. Residents in these areas should be prepared for the possibility of long-duration power outages. If you use a generator after the storm, be sure it is placed outside at least 20 feet away from doors, windows, and garages to avoid deadly carbon monoxide poisoning.
Catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, including numerous significant landslides, is expected across portions of the southern Appalachians through Friday. Considerable to locally catastrophic flash and urban flooding is likely for northwestern and northern Florida and the Southeast through Friday. Widespread significant river flooding and isolated major river flooding are likely.
Current forecast: Where is Hurricane Helene going and how strong could it get?
As of 11 p.m.: 140 mph
12 hours: 65 mph
24 hours: 35 mph
36 hours: 30 mph
48 hours: 25 mph
60 hours: 25 mph
72 hours: dissipated
What impact could Hurricane Helene have and what areas could be affected?
Wind: Hurricane conditions are beginning within the hurricane warning area.
When the eye comes ashore, people are reminded to not venture out into the relative calm, as hazardous winds will increase very quickly when the eye passes. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in southern and central Florida, and these conditions will be spreading northward across the tropical storm warning areas in the Southeastern U.S. through early Friday.
Strong, damaging winds, especially in gusts, will likely penetrate as far inland as the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians.
Storm surge: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:
Carrabelle, FL to Suwannee River, FL...15-20 ft
Apalachicola, FL to Carrabelle, FL...10-15 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...8-12 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Apalachicola, FL...6-10 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
East of Mexico Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Rainfall: Over portions of the Southeastern U.S. into the Southern Appalachians, Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated totals around 20 inches.
This rainfall will likely result in catastrophic and potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with significant river flooding. Numerous significant landslides are expected in steep terrain across the southern Appalachians.
Surf : Swells generated by Helene will affect much of Florida and the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas during the next couple of days. Swells will also continue across portions of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Tornadoes: The risk for several tornadoes continues through tonight over much of Florida, southeast Georgia, central and southern South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. The tornado risk will continue Friday across the Carolinas and southern Virginia.
Ernesto stayed well away from Florida and the U.S., so residents didn't see many differences between the original and new cone. One of the biggest differences between the two is that the new cone will show wind warnings issued for interior counties, not just those on the coast.
Both cones will be visible on the Hurricane Center's website. Find the new cone by going to the graphics page for the storm , then click on "New Experimental Cone," which will be highlighted in red.
Differences you'll see:
Watches and warnings for inland counties, not just coastal areas.
White transparent shading for the entire five-day forecast, instead of white stippling (dots) for the four- and five-day forecast.
Interactive map: What tropical storms, hurricanes have impacted your area in the past?
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