Hurricane center ups odds for tropical system in Atlantic to strengthen

The National Hurricane Center is back to tracking just one Atlantic system with an increasing chance to develop into a tropical depression or storm.

As of the hurricane center’s 8 a.m. Thursday outlook, the tropical wave located in the central Atlantic was producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

“Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by early next week while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph and approaches the Lesser Antilles,” forecasters said. “The system is then forecast to move westward to west-northwestward across portions of the eastern Caribbean Sea during the middle part of next week.”

Its long-term path has it passing over the Leeward or Windward Islands and into the Caribbean, although the certainty and breadth of the storms associated with it span a large swath all the way north to Puerto Rico by the end of next week.

The hurricane center gives the system a 40% chance of development in the next seven days, up from 20% since the center began forecasting its development earlier this week.

If it were to gain enough steam to become a named storm, it could become Tropical Storm Francine.

The hurricane center had also been tracking a low pressure system in the western Atlantic south of Bermuda on Wednesday, but development chances dropped to 0%.

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has had five named systems so far with three forming into hurricanes, one of which grew into a major hurricane.

Some of the recent lack of development can be credited to the Saharan dust cloud that is blown west off the African continent and stymies the chances for tropical systems to form, despite warmer than average ocean temperatures.

While the official hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30, the height of hurricane season runs from mid-August into October.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s upgraded forecast issued earlier this month calls for 17-24 named storms, of which 8-13 could become hurricanes, with 4-7 that could develop into major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher.

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