Why FSU football’s biggest problem isn’t the transfer portal

Because Florida State football coach Mike Norvell established himself as a transfer portal king over his first four seasons with the Seminoles, it’s easy to view FSU’s disastrous start as a referendum on his roster construction.

Live by the portal (a 13-0 start and ACC title last year). Die by the portal (becoming only the third team since 1989 to go from the preseason top 10 to unranked after one week).

Though transfers are part of FSU’s slide, they’re not the biggest culprit. The deeper issue with 0-2 FSU is a lack of talent development.

Forget about Jared Verse and Norvell’s previous transfer wins. Forget, too, about Travis Hunter, KJ Bolden and the other elite high school players he failed to land. Instead, focus on the mediocre production from the blue-chip prep players he has signed.

Undeveloped recruits

Norvell landed 15 blue-chip talents (four- or five-star recruits) over his first two classes (2020-21), according to the 247Sports composite. Only two (Patrick Payton and Pinellas Park High product Lawrance Toafili) started against Boston College. A third, Ja’Khi Douglas, had a team-high four catches off the bench.

But 11 of those top-tier recruits transferred (though Omarion Cooper boomeranged back). Eight failed to appear in more than four games. That’s a high bust rate for players now in their fourth or fifth season — classes that form the backbone of a roster. Though Alex Mastromanno is one of the nation’s top punters, it’s not a good sign that a specialist is one of the best signees from Norvell’s first class.

The ‘22 class is, in some ways, even worse. Unlike 2020-21, there are no built-in excuses like recruiting during a coaching transition or pandemic.

Norvell signed six blue-chip high school prospects in 2022. Defensive back Azareye’h Thomas is the only one who has made a significant impact. Three transferred.

It’s too soon to make much of Norvell’s ’23 class. But during the first two games of their second season, his nine blue-chip signees have combined for 13 tackles and snaps on the field-goal unit. That’s about it.

Norvell’s high transfer success rate — 10 of his 26 portal additions from 2022-23 earned at least honorable-mention all-ACC honors — wasn’t sustainable. It probably wasn’t supposed to be.

In May, Norvell said his portal approach was about “complementary pieces.” Complementary implies adding value to something already there. Now that his transfer hit rate has regressed to the mean, FSU’s lack of high school development has been exposed. There haven’t been enough homegrown successes for newcomers to supplement.

Including at the game’s most important position.

Prep quarterback development

It’s easy to scrutinize DJ Uiagalelei’s 40-of-69 start and a showing that had fans chanting for backup Brock Glenn. But there’s a bigger question to consider.

Why did FSU need a portal passer in the first place?

Though Norvell deserves credit for turning Jordan Travis into a star, FSU did not develop much behind him. Norvell has signed five high school quarterbacks at FSU (including blue-chippers Chubba Purdy and AJ Duffy). Their combined career numbers: 121-of-234, 12 touchdowns and 8 interceptions.

Granted, it’s hard — if not impossible — to stockpile quarterback depth in the portal era. It’s also possible top-60 freshman Luke Kromenhoek excels next season. But the lack of progress is a growing trend. Dating back to Norvell’s Memphis tenure, every one of the primary quarterbacks he has fielded as a head coach has been a transfer, not a high school signee.

Focusing on Norvell’s roster philosophy would be understandable if FSU had lost to Georgia or Clemson or Ohio State or another program that uses the portal sparingly and specifically (or, in the case of the Tigers, not at all). But that’s not the case.

All of Norvell’s high school classes have ranked in the top 25. The average ranking for Georgia Tech/Boston College in that span was 51.9.

The 247Sports talent composite focuses on traditional recruiting rankings, not transfers. By that metric, FSU ranks 13th between Florida and Miami. Georgia Tech is 46th; Boston College is 58th.

Those numbers don’t show a program that’s focused on the wrong area of talent acquisition. They show a team that has signed enough traditional talent but is underachieving with it.

Long-term transfer recruiting

To be clear, the portal has a role in FSU’s struggles, too. Just not in the conventional way.

The risk with transfers is their condensed decision timeline. If high school recruiting is a years-long courtship, the portal is speed-dating. That concern doesn’t apply to many of FSU’s additions, because the ‘Noles recruited so many of them previously. FSU pushed hard for Marvin Jones Jr. and Malik Benson in earlier cycles but missed out on them. Jalen Brown and Earl Little took multiple visits to FSU in high school. Linebacker Shawn Murphy was on campus, too.

The fear of transfers as short-term mercenaries also doesn’t fit Florida State. Four of the portal pickups who started against Boston College — Kyle Morlock, Keiondre Jones, Darrell Jackson and Fentrell Cypress — are in their second year at FSU. They’ve had plenty of time to develop under Norvell and his staff.

In the immediate aftermath of Monday’s loss, Norvell was asked about relying too heavily on the portal to replenish the leadership and experience that left for the NFL. He deflected the question.

“Obviously, I’ve not done a good job putting our guys in a position to showcase what I believe that they are,” Norvell said. “So, I’ll be better.”

He doesn’t need to start by changing the way he constructs his roster. He needs to start by developing the roster he already has.

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