How would Helene’s surge compare to Tampa Bay’s recent storms?

Though forecasters project Hurricane Helene to land far from Tampa Bay, experts predict storm surge in the region as high as 8 feet above ground.

That could mean the highest surge levels the region has experienced in recent memory.

Last summer, Hurricane Idalia brought record tide levels throughout the region, thanks to a unique combination of storm surge, a king tide and a full moon. Water reached 4.6 feet above a typical high tide — 5.7 feet higher than normal levels — at a tidal gauge in the eastern part of Tampa Bay.

Some forecasts show the same monitor breaking its own record this week, if Helene moves past Tampa Bay during a high tide.

On Wednesday evening, just over 24 hours before the expected worst flooding, National Hurricane Center forecasters predicted a peak of 5 to 8 feet of water above ground in parts of Tampa Bay. Those estimates assume surge peaking at high tide, though local experts believe it won’t.

Water levels across the region are already elevated. By Wednesday afternoon, the tide around Port Manatee was nearly a foot and a half above an average high tide.

The National Hurricane Center predicts many coastal areas have a chance of more than 3 feet of flooding. Helene is likely to be the first storm of the year to cause significant surges in Tampa Bay.

Hurricane Debby, which swept past the region in August, caused widespread flooding to rivers and streams but less damaging coastal floods.

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