FSU football: 3 reasons for optimism, 3 reasons for concern with ’Noles

Though Florida State’s big-picture goals are still almost certainly shot, last week’s win over Cal was enough to start creating good vibes around the Seminoles. But how high should FSU fans get their hopes after a 1-3 start?

Here are three reasons for optimism and three for concern heading into Saturday’s game at SMU.

3 reasons for optimism

The defensive line has started to play up to its potential.

FSU has 21 tackles for loss over its past two games. It’s the third-best, two-game total by the Seminoles against Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) opponents since the start of 2016.

It’s also a significant jump from the eight FSU recorded in its first two games. The Seminoles’ defensive front is among the most talented in the country, so its early mediocrity was surprising and worrisome. Joshua Farmer’s breakout game against Cal (3½ tackles for loss and a quarterback hurry) helped open up more opportunities for teammates like Patrick Payton (three sacks). Perhaps this unit has turned a corner.

The run defense is better.

The tackles for loss play a role in this, but it’s more than that. Boston College and Georgia Tech averaged 5.1 yards per rush against FSU. In the last two games, the Seminoles have allowed less than half that (2.5), despite facing one of the West Coast’s top players (Cal’s Jaydn Ott).

If this improvement is real and not artificially inflated by the opponent, FSU can make a decent run the rest of the season.

Lawrance Toafili is more involved.

After having only 20 total touches through the first three games, the running back from Pinellas Park High had 19 against Cal. Health has played a role in his opportunities, and he’ll probably be in line for more responsibilities with Jaylin Lucas out for the year and Roydell Williams sidelined for what Norvell called an “extended period.”

“We needed him to be a workhorse (against Cal), and I thought he definitely answered the call,” Norvell told reporters after the game.

A better performance by FSU’s offensive line deserves some credit for his 80-yard night, but Toafili is an X factor. He’s averaging 4.9 yards per rush; the rest of the ‘Noles are averaging 2.6 yards per carry (excluding sacks). Toafili was the MVP of the ACC championship and has a knack for the kind of explosive plays FSU’s offense has lacked. His emergence Saturday was encouraging.

3 reasons for concern

The passing game is rough.

Norvell said Monday that starting quarterback DJ Uiagalelei’s position is not changing. But the results must — from the entire passing attack. FSU is outside the top 100 nationally in passing efficiency (112.93) and completion percentage (56.7); both figures are the program’s worst since the 2020 COVID season.

The Seminoles have only three completions of 30-plus yards, which means their passing offense is as explosive as Iowa’s. That’s not good company to be in. Worse, this looks like a trend. FSU has gone nine consecutive games without passing for 300 yards. The Seminoles’ stats over the last seven contests: two touchdowns, five interceptions.

The rushing attack isn’t that much better.

Even Toafili’s spark could not do much for the ground game; FSU only averaged 2.6 yards per rush against Cal. That’s a season-long problem. Under Norvell, the Seminoles have averaged less than 3.2 yards per attempt in 11 games. Four were this season.

If a team continues to show you who they are, at some point you have to believe them. After four games, how much more evidence do we need?

The schedule is tricky.

Excluding Charleston Southern, FSU’s seven remaining opponents have a combined record of 21-6. Weak non-conference schedules can skew early results, but advanced metrics suggest this isn’t an easy slate. All seven remaining FBS opponents are in the top 40 in ESPN’s SP+ advanced metrics. Miami, Clemson and Notre Dame are in the top 20. That competition could put a ceiling on FSU’s potential.

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