Does constant college football coaching turnover eventually pay off?

As the Florida Gators consider Billy Napier’s future in the coming days or weeks, they’ll have to weigh the risks and rewards of hitting the reset button — again.

The possibility of another coaching search led us to the historical archives. Does rapidly cycling through struggling coaches eventually lead to success?

We’re still not sure.

If — again, if — the Gators fire Napier before the end of 2025, he’ll be the fourth consecutive coach who failed to last four full seasons: Will Muschamp (fired before the end of Year 4), Jim McElwain (out after 34 games) and Dan Mullen (canned before his fourth year’s regular-season finale). Only a handful of Florida’s peers have experienced a comparable stretch of firing-fueled turnover, and most had circumstances beyond their records.

Here’s a look at the closest historical examples we could find, as Napier prepares for another make-or-break game against UCF:

Miami (1971-79)

The turnover king with four consecutive coaches that lasted only two seasons: Fran Curci, Pete Elliott, Carl Selmer and Lou Saban. Curci and Selmer were a combined 14-29. But Elliott and Saban both resigned — Elliott to become athletic director, Saban to coach Army.

What happened next: Miami replaced Saban with Howard Schnellenberger, who won the state’s first national championship in 1983 and became the patriarch of The U’s dynasty.

Miami (2007-21)

Different than Florida for two reasons: Al Golden lasted into Year 5, and Mark Richt retired. But their tenures were bookended by the firings of Randy Shannon (four seasons) and Manny Diaz (three). This four-coach stretch combined for only four ranked finishes and a 107-75 record.

What happened next: Miami pushed out Diaz to hire native son Mario Cristobal from Oregon. After a 12-13 start, he’s 5-0 this fall and has the No. 8 Hurricanes in the College Football Playoff picture heading into Saturday’s “College GameDay” matchup at Cal.

Tennessee (2009-20)

Butch Jones was fired less than a year after his Volunteers won their championship of life, but he still coached into a fifth season. The overall turnover, however, was four coaches in 12 years (Lane Kiffin’s 7-6 stint plus three losing seasons from Derek Dooley and Jeremy Pruitt’s 16-19 run). Tennessee never finished in the top 20.

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What happened next: The Vols poached UCF’s Josh Heupel, who has outperformed expectations. His No. 6 finish in 2022 was Tennessee’s best in two decades, and his No. 4 Vols look like a playoff team this fall.

LSU (1980-94)

Jerry Stovall and Curley Hallman were both fired after four seasons, and Mike Archer technically resigned after his slide from a top-five finish to 5-6. But Bill Arnsparger finished in the top 20 in all three of his seasons before resigning to become UF’s athletic director.

What happened next: The next coach didn’t excel, either; Gerry DiNardo was fired near the end of his fifth season with a 32-24-1 record. But his replacement? Nick Saban, who won a share of the 2003 national title.

Clemson (1970-78)

After Frank Howard — as in iconic Clemson landmark Howard’s Rock — ended his Hall of Fame career, the Tigers had three coaches in nine years. Cecil “Hootie” Ingram and Red Parker combined for one winning season. Charley Pell won 18 games of his 23 games but sparked an NCAA investigation before he bolted for Florida.

What happened next: The Tigers landed another legendary coach, Danny Ford. He won five ACC championships and the program’s first national title in 1981.

Mississippi (2005-19)

Neither Ed Orgeron nor Matt Luke had winning seasons over their three years. The two coaches in the middle, Houston Nutt and Hugh Freeze, had a pair of top-20 finishes … and NCAA trouble. Freeze resigned just before his sixth season after records revealed a call to a Tampa-area escort service from his university phone.

What happened next: Lane Kiffin won a school-record 11 games last season. His 4-1, 12th-ranked Rebels remain a playoff contender, despite last week’s loss to Kentucky.

Texas A&M (1948-64)

After the resignation of national champion Homer Norton, the Aggies had five consecutive coaches who left before Year 5. Four had losing records. The exception in the middle was Bear Bryant, who had a pair of top-10 finishes before going to Alabama.

The wildest, only-in-college-football story: Harry Stiteler resigned after admitting that he lied about the details of being physically attacked. Stiteler initially said he didn’t know the assailant, but it turns out they had some “personal differences,” as the Fort Worth Star-Telegram put it. It’s the closest comparison we found to McElwain’s exit after mentioning death threats.

What happened next: The constant churn ended with an unsuccessful seven-year run by Gene Stallings (who later won a national title at ’Bama). The Aggies have had flashes of success but haven’t been able to sustain it — or add another national championship to the collection.

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