One-two punch from Helene, Milton could bring historic Tampa Bay impacts

Coming on the heels of Hurricane Helene, Hurricane Milton could deliver to the Tampa Bay area a one-two punch uncommonly seen during hurricane season.

The National Weather Service Tampa Bay reported Monday that if Milton stays on its current track, it will be the worst storm to impact the region in more than 100 years.

“A storm like this is something most of us haven’t ever seen in our lifetimes,” said Spectrum Bay News 9 meteorologist Kyle Hanson.

Milton is already unusual in the path it’s taking toward the Sunshine State, having formed in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, unlike most storms that form in the south and east.

Its trajectory brings it to the west-central coast, where a mere 10 days ago Helene brought surge to Pinellas and Pasco counties that damaged and destroyed homes and businesses and left sand like snowbanks on streets.

Storms do occasionally hit the same area twice. It happened here in 2004, though neither of those storms was a direct hit.

“It’s often the case that every couple years, some location will get hit twice within a period of a few weeks in very close proximity,” said Jeff Masters, a hurricane scientist formerly with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Steering currents can persist for weeks during a season, influencing a storm’s path to follow in the wake of a previous system.

In 2004, hurricanes Frances and Jeanne struck three weeks apart, making landfall in almost the same exact spot in Martin County along Florida’s east coast.

Frances arrived in early September, bringing storm surge as high as 10 feet and winds recorded at 128 mph in some places, damaging or destroying thousands of buildings and homes. East coast residents were still clearing debris and trying to return to normalcy when Jeanne tore through, delivering even more destruction.

The storms took a similar northwestern path through the state. Frances blew through Tampa Bay before exiting into the Gulf of Mexico. Jeanne stretched farther north, passing through Hernando and Citrus counties before meandering along the Big Bend region and eventually heading into Georgia.

In 2020, people in western Louisiana, near the Texas state line, were still recovering from Hurricane Laura, which hit that August, when Hurricane Delta struck the area in late October. That second storm, a Category 2, made landfall a mere 15 miles from where Laura, a Category 4, arrived. Laura caused widespread property damage in the city of Lake Charles, and Delta brought further flooding and wind damage.

Later that year, hurricanes Eta and Iota, Categories 4 and 5 respectively, hit Nicaragua just two weeks apart.

This year, hurricanes Debby and Helene both whipped Florida’s west coast before making landfall in Taylor County. Though neither struck Tampa Bay, both brought heavy surge.

The last time a major hurricane made a direct hit on the Tampa Bay area was in October 1921.

The lead headline in the Oct. 27, 1921, edition of the St. Petersburg Times estimated Pinellas County’s hurricane damages at $2 million, equivalent to about $33 million today. The news then told of sunken ships, wrecked harbors, piers turned to stumps, two men killed and another injured when wind carried him off a porch.

Before that, the area had not seen a direct hit from a major storm since 1848. That storm is believed to have been a Category 3 or 4, slamming ashore with 115 to 135 mph winds. It brought 15 feet of surge to what is now downtown Tampa. It was so powerful it reshaped part of the coastline in Pinellas County.

How might Hurricane Milton compare?

It’s difficult to say, Hanson said. But Milton could be similar to 1921.

Milton will bring more wind than Helene did, potentially turning loose objects and debris from the last storm into projectiles, Hanson said.

“If Hurricane Milton takes a similar track (to the 1921 storm), I think the impacts could be similar,” Hanson said. “But our landscape here in Tampa Bay is a lot different now.”

When the 1921 storm hit, Hillsborough County’s population was less than 100,000. In Pinellas County, it was less than 40,000. There were far fewer roads, far few buildings. Today, this area is home to about 3 million people. Structures are abundant and development is dense.

The 1921 storm saw 10-12 feet of storm surge. Milton’s worst-case scenarios could see the same.

The scenario for Tampa Bay, though, depends on precisely where Milton makes landfall. If it happens near or north of Tampa Bay, the impacts would be severe, less so if it shifts south.

Even if Milton, which on Monday afternoon became a Category 5, weakens before landfall as forecasters predict, it would devastate the Tampa Bay area, Masters said.

“It’s going to set a record for the highest storm surge ever measured along some portion of the coast, wherever the highest surge is observed,” Master said.

Times staff writer Jack Prator contributed to this report.

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