Helene just flooded Tampa Bay. Here’s how much worse Milton’s surge could be.

Less than two weeks after Hurricane Helene flooded Tampa Bay with record storm surge, Milton is poised to up the ante.

The most recent forecasts predict up to 10 to 15 feet of flooding above ground in parts of the region – up from an earlier prediction 8 to 12 feet, and potentially double what Helene had unleashed. The severity will depend on the exact path the storm takes, said Robert Weisberg, a professor of physical oceanography at the University of South Florida.

Tampa Bay residents need to prepare for “unthinkable destruction,” Weisberg said.

Two weeks ago, Helene caused strong tropical storm winds in Tampa Bay, along with substantial storm surge and flooding in places “nobody ever dreamed of,” he said.

At Helene’s peak, all six of the region’s gauges broke the recent local record. One in the Eastern part of Tampa Bay recorded the highest level, 7.1 feet above normal high tide. That was nearly 8 feet over the normal water cycle early in the morning on Sept. 27.

But Milton is different.

“This is an actual hurricane that will make landfall somewhere along the west coast of Florida – just where we really don’t know yet,” said Weisberg.

If the storm ultimately moves north of Tampa Bay, it will drag water from the Gulf with it, pounding the bay and the coast with surge. If it curves to the south, water will actually be sucked out of the bay, sparing the region from the worst potential flooding.

The intensity of winds – and whether they slow by the time Milton makes landfall – is also a factor. The storm reached Category 5 strength midday Monday.

Overall, Milton could bring catastrophe to low-lying areas, many of which are still recovering from Helene.

Weisberg mentioned parts of Northeast St. Petersburg, where numerous homes remain gutted after suffering several feet of inundation during Helene.

If Milton’s eye falls to the north, “those houses will all be wet again, and probably much worse,” he said.

If the most severe forecasts prove accurate, Milton would be the third storm in two years to break recent records. Hurricane Idalia in 2023 brought 5.7 feet of surge – at the time the highest level recorded since Hurricane Eta three years earlier.

A hurricane that struck in 1921, before the current gauges existed, brought more than 10 feet.

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