Tampa Bay is used to storm surge. Is it ready for the wind from Milton?

Forecasters expect Hurricane Milton to make landfall along Florida’s west coast as a major hurricane, bringing the threat of not just water, but wind.

The National Hurricane Center expects Milton will be a Category 3 storm, with wind speeds of at least 111 mph, when it reaches the Tampa Bay area, likely sometime overnight Wednesday.

“A Category 3 is still a major hurricane that most people in this area have never seen,” said Christianne Pearce, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service’s Tampa Bay office.

The only other storm to rival Hurricane Milton in Tampa Bay history is a 1921 hurricane that ravaged the community over a century ago.

While Hurricane Milton poses a wide range of threats, including deadly storm surge, devastating winds could damage Tampa Bay homes and infrastructure, knock down trees and cause flying debris.

Here’s what to know about Milton’s anticipated winds.

How strong will Milton’s winds be?

While water is the largest killer during hurricanes, dangerous winds will be another feature of Hurricane Milton.

While Milton dipped to a Category 4 hurricane earlier Tuesday, it later grew back to the Category 5 strength that it first reached Monday.

However, less favorable conditions will likely knock down the storm to a Category 3 before it makes landfall.

“We’re going to see an extensive risk of hurricane-force winds across much of the Florida peninsula,” said National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan.

Hurricane-force winds extended outward Tuesday up to 30 miles from the center and tropical storm-force winds extended outward up to 140 miles.

Milton’s windfield is expected to balloon as it reaches the coast. Forecasters said its hurricane and tropical storm-force winds will roughly double by the time it makes landfall.

Hurricane Milton’s strongest wind will be near the storm’s eye, Pearce said.

“We could have peak winds of 85 to 105 mph, sustained — which is something most people around here have never experienced — with gusts to that Category 3 level,” Pearce said.

Gusts could be up to 130 mph.

Brennan said destructive, hurricane-force winds will likely extend across central Florida, in areas like Ocala and Orlando, moving to the east coast.

What kind of damage can hurricane-force winds cause?

The National Weather Service uses a scale, from one to four, to display wind threats.

The Tampa Bay area, along with portions of southwest Florida, were considered a level 4, on Tuesday.

A level 4 (when winds of 111 mph or greater are possible) anticipates walls and roofs on some structures may fail; mobile homes could be destroyed; downed trees and debris could block roads; and wide spread power outages are likely.

Structural damage to older homes could be “significant,” Pearce said.

Projectiles are also a concern.

After Hurricane Helene, debris, like downed tree branches and furniture, remain stacked on the sides of streets waiting to be hauled away.

Many residents feared that massive wind gusts could pick up strewn objects and turn them into destructive projectiles.

Local governments on Monday told residents who had not placed all their damaged belongings on the curb to leave them inside their homes.

“I can assure you that our community, our partners, our state, county crews, we are doing everything we can to remove as much debris from our community,” said Pinellas County spokesperson Barbra Hernandez, who said the county approved additional crews to pick up the millions of cubic yards of waste Helene left behind. “But realistically, we know that that will not be complete by the time that Milton gets here.”

How to think about building risks

Counties call evacuation orders to get people away from the projected storm surge, said David Connor, the public information officer for Pinellas County.

However, counties in Tampa Bay have called for additional evacuations for people living in mobile homes and RVs, in part because of the threat of wind.

Connor said the county does not have the resources to diagnose the safety of each building.

However, the county suggests individuals evaluate their own wind risks.

Connor said to the county tells residents to consider a home’s sturdiness by a few factors, like when it was built or the age of its roof. He also said to mind large, unhealthy trees that could come down during Milton’s winds.

Homes built after Hurricane Andrew were likely built to a higher standard to withstand stronger storms, Connor said. The state adopted a universal building code in 2002, according to the National Association of Home Builders.

The code is updated every three years, and its latest edition went into effect on Dec. 31, 2023.

The Times analyzed property and permits data for Pinellas County and found nearly 80% of single-family homes have exterior walls made of concrete block.

At least a fifth of all homes have had permits issued for some degree of roof work since the end of 2020 — when the seventh edition of the latest Florida Building Code went into effect.

The most recent updates included new guidelines on roof attachments, according to the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety.

“It’s going to be scary for awhile, and I would always recommend people find the safest room in their house, away from windows,” Pearce said. “And just be prepared to hunker down in that room during the worst of it.”

Times staff writers Jack Prator, Colleen Wright, Justin Garcia and Teghan Simonton contributed to this report.

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