Who gets Hurricane Milton’s worst surge? Here’s why we don’t know yet.

When a hurricane barrels toward Florida, there’s one question everyone wants to answer:

Where, exactly, will it hit?

With Hurricane Milton, that question could matter for Tampa Bay even more than in most storms. Unlike Hurricane Helene two weeks ago, the worst of Milton’s surge flooding could be decided by just a few miles’ difference in track.

Here’s why.

North or south of the bay makes a big difference

So far, several forecast models have predicted that Milton could land somewhere around the entrance to Tampa Bay off the Gulf of Mexico.

Whether the eye of the storm passes north or south of that gap — spanning roughly 12 miles from the southern tip of Pinellas County to around Palmetto — will determine whether the bay sees several feet of flooding or up to 15 feet of record-setting, lethal surge.

The worst of the surge could shift south, leaving places such as Sarasota and Venice at extreme risk.

Tampa Bay is one of the most vulnerable places in the country in the face of storm surge. Developed land surrounds it like a cul-de-sac, with hundreds of thousands of people near water, unlike a typical flat coastline. If the wind blows in and through the bay, water will stack up and race into places like St. Petersburg, Tampa, Apollo Beach and Ruskin.

That’s what would happen if Milton’s eye passes north of the bay’s mouth. The wind on the right side of the storm, which is moving northeast and spinning counterclockwise, will move onshore. It could deliver a surge even higher — and more violent with breaking waves — than Helene’s last month.

But if Milton’s eye passes south of the bay, the wind on the storm’s left side could instead suck water out — decreasing the potential for catastrophic flooding for parts of the coast.

“Little wobbles and shifts in the track do make a big difference,” said Christianne Pearce, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Ruskin. “The worst of that surge is going to be at landfall and south of landfall.”

Milton isn’t Helene

Milton’s setup is much different than Helene’s was two weeks ago. Helene, a massive storm, churned up surge levels not seen since 1921.

Moving parallel to the bay and far west, Helene was destined to lash a broad area with winds that pushed water onshore, said Jeff Masters, a hurricane scientist formerly with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

But Milton will instead hit the coast head-on, meaning its winds may be more intense and swirl in multiple directions. Stiff gusts would be a much bigger problem, but the surge could be less consistent across the map.

Impossible to predict

For the next 36 hours, as Hurricane Milton rips toward Florida, the cone for its projected landfall will shrink.

That means meteorologists will get more certain about where the storm’s powerful eye could land. But they won’t be sure until Milton is actually tearing into the coast.

Atmospheric blips jostle even big storms — and those shifts can happen late in a hurricane’s path.

Even within 12 hours, the hurricane center forecast isn’t perfect. Two-thirds of the time, a storm’s eye at that point is within 30 miles of the projection.

That is the approximate distance from St. Pete Beach south to Lido Key, off Sarasota. Or north to Holiday.

“We need to have a 10-mile resolution in our ability to forecast the track in order to know what’s going to happen to Tampa Bay,” Masters said. “And we don’t have that.”

Mexico Beach, Fort Myers Beach are warnings

Every storm is different. But Hurricane Michael and Hurricane Ian offer examples of how destruction from storm surge can vary greatly on either side of the eye.

Hurricane Michael, a Category 5 storm, made landfall near Tyndall Air Force Base in Bay County on Oct. 10, 2018 — potentially six years to the day before Milton’s arrival.

Mexico Beach and Port St. Joe, about 15 miles southeast or more, were battered by surge up to 14 feet deep above ground. Ruthless flooding and wind ripped homes from their foundations.

Hurricane Ian in 2022 made landfall near Cayo Costa as a strong Category 4 hurricane. Fort Myers Beach and Sanibel, about 20 to 25 miles to the southeast, saw a surge that swallowed the first stories of buildings. Dozens of people drowned.

Data from the Federal Emergency Management Agency shows the highest rates of flood damage claims were made for homes just south of Ian’s landfall, in coastal areas from Fort Myers Beach to Naples and along the mouth of the Caloosahatchee River.

Surge isn’t the only danger

Hurricane evacuations are largely ordered to protect people from water. Over and over, emergency managers offer Floridians pithy advice: Run from the water, hide from the wind.

The uncertainty on Milton’s exact track is why so much of the Tampa Bay region is under evacuation orders. Some slice of the coast will almost certainly receive unprecedented flooding when the storm makes landfall late Wednesday or early Thursday. We just don’t know where.

But damage — and danger — will be widespread, even if the storm’s eye ends up passing south of where you live.

Forecasters say upcoming weather patterns mean the portion of the storm immediately north of the eye could carry some of the strongest winds, knocking out power, toppling trees and tearing at roofs. It also could dump heavy rains, leading to flash flooding.

The backside of Milton, if it passes south of the bay, could still pile up surge on parts of the Pinellas coast — including Clearwater Beach — because some winds will blow toward shore.

Regardless of the precise track, one thing is certain:

“It’s going to be fierce,” Masters said.

“Tampa Bay has not experienced this sort of wind in living memory that I expect to happen.”

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