Hurricane Milton expected to make landfall as Category 4, forecasters say

Hurricane Milton was still a powerful Category 5 storm early Wednesday as it barreled toward Florida’s west coast.

Landfall was expected in west-central Florida late Wednesday or early Thursday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center. Forecasters predict the storm will maintain 130 mph winds, a Category 4 storm, when it reaches land.

The storm was about 300 miles southwest of Tampa and moving northeast at 14 mph with 160-mph winds as of 5 a.m. Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extended outward up to 30 miles from its center and tropical storm-force winds extended outward up to 125 miles.

Milton’s windfield is expected to balloon as it reaches the coast. Forecasters said its hurricane and tropical storm-force winds will roughly double in size by the time it makes landfall.

The Tampa Bay area is already experiencing heavy rainfall as Milton’s first bands stretch ashore. Tropical storm-force winds are expected to arrive by midday.

Storm surge in the Tampa Bay area was predicted to reach up to 15 feet, according to the hurricane center. Parts of Pasco County may see up to 10 feet of surge.

The worst of that surge depends on whether Milton makes landfall north or south of Tampa Bay. That would be impossible to predict before Milton reaches the coast, experts said.

Forecasters nudged the center trackline to the north Wednesday, but urged people not to focus on Milton’s exact landfall point. Less than 24 hours before landfall, the hurricane center cited a margin of error of 40 miles.

Vertical wind shear will increase and weaken Milton later Wednesday.

“However, there is high confidence that Milton will remain a very dangerous hurricane when it reaches Florida,” forecasters wrote in an advisory.

The hurricane center repeated its message to Floridians: “Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida.”

Forecasters also said flash flood risk was high for central Florida. Milton may bring up to 16 inches of rain to the Tampa Bay area.

Milton’s rapid intensification rivals nearly every storm before it, forecasters said. Its wind speeds grew more than 90 mph in 24 hours, behind only Felix in 2007 and Wilma in 2005, according to the hurricane center’s records.

Milton surged from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in about 25 hours.

Forecasters said Milton was at peak strength Monday evening, when its central pressure dipped to 897 millibars. That makes it the fifth strongest storm ever recorded in the Atlantic basin.

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