Call us fearless or foolish. 3 predictions for Lightning this season

TAMPA — For the first time in a long time, casual Lightning fans might need a roster to familiarize themselves with several new faces.

What might be more jarring is watching a Lightning team without the likes of Steven Stamkos and Mikhail Sergachev, two fan favorites who were fixtures on Tampa Bay’s Stanley Cup run teams.

But after consecutive first-round playoff exits, this offseason was one of transition. The organization’s front office had to make some hard roster choices in order to — in their eyes — make the Lightning a tougher postseason out now, while trying to ensure that the team keeps competing for Cups for the foreseeable future.

They had to get better defensively, and the addition of Jake Guentzel and return of Ryan McDonagh address that. Much of the star core remains. Still, there are many questions about how a team with more new players — and returning ones in different roles — will mesh in 2024-25.

Here we attempt to address some of those questions with three bold predictions for the upcoming season.

Power play will be a work in progress well into the season

You just don’t easily replace a player like Stamkos, and unfortunately for the Lightning, they’ll go into the season still uncertain about how to re-invent the power play without him.

The power play was the Lightning’s greatest strength last season, and its 28.6% success rate was the best in the league. Stamkos’ 19 power-play goals were tied for third most in the league. Over the past seven seasons, Stamkos’ 103 power-play goals trail only Leon Draisaitl’s 130. Opponents knew Stamkos’ patented one-timer from the left circle was coming, but still couldn’t stop it.

In the preseason, the Lightning experimented with several looks. Once Stamkos’ departure became official, assistant coach Jeff Halpern was in the lab and talking to players to prepare them for different roles. Nikita Kucherov and Brandon Hagel worked together for two months, swapping between the left and right circle. And as one of the team’s only heavy right-shot options, defenseman Darren Raddysh spent the summer working on his slap shot from the left circle.

A lot of work has gone into trying to find the right solution, but the short preseason slate of games don’t offer enough time to experiment, and practice reps don’t replicate the feel.

And again: Replacing a legend doesn’t happen overnight.

So don’t be surprised if the Lightning are still showing a bunch of different looks early in the season. , it just won’t come together quickly, especially since one of the reasons the power play was so good was because of the comfort that came with years of playing together.

It will take time.

This is the season Nikita Kucherov scores 50 goals

It’s easy to forget how much Kucherov carried the Lightning offense through the first half of last season, scoring 28 of his career-high 44 goals in his first 40 games.

He took it upon himself to shoot more, and he was shooting from everywhere. Part of that was because the Lightning’s early-season mentality seemed to be that they had to outscore opponents without safety valve Andrei Vasilevskiy in net for nearly the first two months.

But from that point on, Kucherov focused more on setting up his teammates as he went on to become the fifth player in league history to record 100 assists in a season. He cut down on his shooting; just 41.8 of his career-high 307 shots on goal came in the final 42 games of the regular season.

Kucherov becoming more of a distributor also correlated with the Lightning’s strong second half as they solidified their way into a playoff spot (Vasilevskiy’s return to form also was a major factor, as well as better defensive play).

Kucherov is one of the smartest players in the game and knew that becoming more of a scoring threat early in the season would eventually open up more opportunities for his teammates, and it did.

His shot is underrated, often overshadowed by his playmaking skills, but he might need to shoot more again this season to compensate for the loss of Stamkos and to give Guentzel time to find his comfort level with new teammates.

There will be no hesitation from Kucherov. He knows what to give when the Lightning need it most, and they’ll need him to become more of a scoring threat, especially on the power play with Stamkos’ one-timer no longer something defenses have to account for.

There’s no reason to think 50 goals is too lofty.

Conor Geekie will make a major impact this season

The Lightning like what they’ve seen in Conor Geekie in the preseason, and regardless of whether he’s on the opening night roster, it’s only a matter of time before he’s with the NHL team to stay.

There’s no question that he could probably benefit from some more seasoning in the AHL, but Geekie already brings the kind of well-rounded game that makes the Lightning a better team.

If the Lightning learned anything from last season it’s that an injection of youth into the lineup can provide a spark. And there’s no player more prepared to do that than Geekie.

And it’s not because of what he can be — a top-six centerman with size who can skate and score, possess the puck, play in the dirty areas and play strong defense. But it’s what he is now, a hungry 20-year-old willing to do whatever it takes to make an impact.

A lot of prospects struggle to fit in when they get to the NHL, being relegated to bottom-six lines because they’re so used to scoring in the AHL rather than playing complementary checking-line roles. But you only need look to Mitchell Chaffee’s success to see how a player can find a home in the NHL by doing the little things well.

Geekie was an accomplished scorer in juniors — 49 goals and 108 points in his final season — and he plays with a lot of confidence; he’s not afraid to put the game on his stick. The Lightning embrace that kind of swagger.

And Geekie has shown that he can add toughness and snarl that the Lightning could use more of. There’s a lot to be excited about when it comes to his future.

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