How many properties did Milton’s surge flood? Here’s what the data show.

After Hurricane Milton’s brutal winds subsided Thursday morning, coastal neighborhoods in Pinellas and Hillsborough counties largely breathed a sigh of relief.

Just 12 days earlier, Hurricane Helene skirted past the region, bringing record surge to low-lying waterfront neighborhoods like Shore Acres and Treasure Island, before making landfall in Florida’s Big Bend as a Category 4 Hurricane.

With Milton, communities on the bay and Pinellas beaches were mostly spared from surge. Tides at Clearwater Beach and in Tampa Bay remained below flood stage.

But torrential rain and biting winds brought damage throughout the area, toppling trees, ripping off roofs and causing rivers to overflow into homes.

The worst of Milton’s surge damage had little overlap with Helene’s, according to a Tampa Bay Times analysis of forecast data and building footprints.

The Times analysis included places where National Hurricane Center estimates just before landfall showed a 10% chance of receiving at least 6 feet of flooding above ground.

Less than five dozen buildings in Hillsborough saw surge flooding potential of 6 feet or more; none did in Pinellas and Pasco. The amount of surge relied entirely on the track. A forecast 24 hours earlier, when there was still a chance of landfall farther north, put nearly 15,000 structures at risk in those counties.

Instead, Milton made landfall roughly 50 miles south, near Siesta Key.

Milton’s trajectory drew water out of Tampa Bay and pushed the worst surge further south. In contrast, Helene’s large size and northward track made the region more susceptible to surge on the storm’s “dirty side,” which is typically south of the eye.

Sarasota, Manatee, Lee and Charlotte took the brunt of surge damage. There, more than 5,000 structures were on land forecast to see Milton’s worst surge flooding, the Times analysis found.

On barrier islands like Siesta and Manasota Key, the surge engulfed coastal homes and devastated businesses, many still recovering after Helene.

Hurricane Helene pushed surge into Tampa Bay. With Milton, the strongest tides went south.

Hurricane Milton's strongest surge impacts were concentrated around Sarasota, sparing coastal regions by the bay but flooding communities to the south.

Not all counted buildings would necessarily have water inside; many places near the water are elevated or may have seen less surge than forecasted.

Times analysis of Microsoft building footprints and National Hurricane Center forecasts from immediately before landfall

SHREYA VUTTALURU | Times

The National Hurricane Center data shows reasonable worst-case flood levels for a given location. Not all counted buildings would necessarily have water inside; many near the water are elevated or saw less surge than predicted.

The surge projections don’t account for the heavy rainfall that inundated Tampa Bay neighborhoods, including Clearwater, where rescuers pulled residents from an apartment complex submerged under 6 feet of water. In just six hours, about 17 inches of rain drenched parts of Pinellas and Hillsborough counties, causing rivers to crest and inundating neighboring communities.

All told, some coastal residents in Tampa Bay count themselves lucky, even after enduring two powerful storms.

Tracy Loader-Sherman of Madeira Beach said Helene flooded her garage and destroyed her cars. Her home, elevated above the garage, saw little damage from Milton.

“I feel like I won a big trophy,” she said.

Times staff writers Max Chesnes, Ian Hodgson and Lauren Peace contributed to this report.