Hurricane Ernesto is closing in on Bermuda as a Category 2 storm, according to the 5 p.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
It's expected to bring a prolonged period of strong winds and storm surge on Bermuda that has already begun and is expected to continue through Saturday night.
Ernesto also is forecast to bring dangerous swells and life-threatening rip currents to Florida and along the entire East Coast of the U.S. through the weekend.
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Dry air Thursday helped prevent Ernesto from intensifying. At this time, forecasters are predicting the storm will hit or pass close to Bermuda, possibly as a Category 2 hurricane .
At 5 p.m., Friday, the hurricane was located east of North Florida and is expected to remain well offshore as it continues to move north.
The formation of the latest storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season came just over a week after Hurricane Debby made landfall on Florida's Big Bend Monday, Aug. 5.
National Hurricane Center launches new 'cone of concern' with Hurricane Ernesto
The National Hurricane Center launched its new "cone of concern " for Hurricane Ernesto Thursday, Aug. 14.
You won't see many differences between the original and new cone with Ernesto since one of the biggest differences is that the new cone will show wind warnings issued for interior counties, not just those on the coast.
Both cones are visible on the Hurricane Center's website. Find the new cone by going to the graphics page for Hurricane Ernesto, then clicking on the New Experimental Cone highlighted in red.
"The biggest change to the cone is the addition of the inland wind warnings. The National Weather Service has issued those for years," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
"We're placing that information on the (NHC) cone for a more comprehensive view of the threat so people don't have to go to two different websites. All the information is seamlessly merged together."
Differences you'll see:
- Watches and warnings for inland counties, not just coastal areas.
- White transparent shading for the entire five-day forecast, instead of white stippling (dots) for the four- and five-day forecast.
Hurricane Ernesto: What you need to know
Watches, warnings issued for Florida, US
No watches or warning directly connected to Hurricane Ernesto have been issued for Florida. However, rip current statements and small craft advisories have been issued along most of Florida's East Coast as swells from Ernesto reach the coast.
A hurricane warning has been issued for:
A hurricane warning means hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
How strong is Hurricane Ernesto and where is it going?
At 5 p.m., AST, the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 65.6 West.
Ernesto is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph. This general motion is expected to continue with a gradual slowdown tomorrow. An accelerating northeastward motion is then expected late this weekend into early next week.
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On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda tomorrow morning.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast over the next day or so, though some re-intensification is possible by early next week.
Ernesto is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 75 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles.
Saildrone SD-1068 located about 25 miles west-northwest of Ernesto's center, recently reported a sustained wind of 67 mph, with a gust to 89 mph.
The Bermuda International Airport also recently reported sustained winds of 41 mph, with a gust to 63 mph.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb.
Spaghetti models for Hurricane Ernesto
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
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Predicted impact on Florida from Hurricane Ernesto
Beachgoers along the U.S. East Coast can expect a "high risk of dangerous rip currents , through the weekend" the Hurricane Center said.
Swells were expected to reach the east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
" Entering the hazardous surf is strongly discouraged ," the National Weather Service Melbourne said.
The National Weather Service offices in Jacksonville and Melbourne have issued warnings for a high rip current risks into the weekend. Waves could be 4 to 5 feet in the surf zone.
Rip current risks as of Friday morning extend as far north as North Carolina.
Ernesto Florida impacts: Hurricane Ernesto may affect your Florida beach plans. Here's timeline and what to expect
Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Hurricane Ernesto
- Ernesto is expected to bring a prolonged period of strong winds and storm surge on Bermuda that is beginning currently and expected to continue through Saturday night. A hurricane warning is in effect for the island, and preparations to protect life and property should be completed as tropical-storm-force winds are already being observed on the island.
- Heavy rainfall associated with Ernesto is expected to impact Bermuda through Saturday and will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on the island.
- Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect the area through the weekend. Beach goers should be aware of a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days.
Radar: Watch as Hurricane Ernesto approaches Bermuda
Current forecast: How strong could Tropical Storm Ernesto get?
- At 5 p.m.: 100 mph (Category 2 hurricane)
- 12 hours: 90 mph
- 24 hours: 85 mph
- 36 hours: 80 mph
- 48 hours: 85 mph
- 60 hours: 90 mph
- 72 hours: 80 mph
- 96 hours: 60 mph (post tropical)
- 120 hours: 40 mph (post tropical)
What impact could Hurricane Ernesto have and what areas could be affected?
- WIND : Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with tropical storm conditions already beginning on the island.
- STORM SURGE : A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
- RAINFALL : Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 9 inches or 150 to 225 mm in Bermuda. This rainfall will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on the island.
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- SURF : Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda.
What else is out there and how likely are they to strengthen?
The National Hurricane Center is tracking three tropical waves:
- First wave: A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is passing through tthe Cabo Verde Islands. It's moving west at around 11 mph.
- Second wave: A tropical wave in the central Atlantic is moving west at 11 to 15 mph.
- Third wave: A tropical wave in the western Atlantic is just east of the Lesser Antilles. It's moving west at 17 mph.
What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on a tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until a there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
"If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said.
Who is likely to be impacted?
Swells from Hurricane Ernesto are expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip currents to Florida and the East Coast through the weekend.
It's too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to Florida or the U.S. from the tropical waves.
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared. That advice is particularly important for what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.
Interactive map: What tropical storms, hurricanes have impacted your area in the past?
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
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What's next?
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This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: Hurricane Ernesto closing in on Bermuda. Expect dangerous beach conditions in Florida
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