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    Jasmine Paolini to stun Iga Swiatek? Our French Open final preview and prediction

    By Oli Dickson Jefford,

    2024-06-06
    https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?url=22TNUK_0tj2aLDp00
    Jasmine Paolini and Iga Swiatek face off in the French Open final.

    It all comes down to this.

    Iga Swiatek will face Jasmine Paolini on Court Philippe Chatrier this Saturday, with the French Open title at stake.

    For Swiatek, this is familiar territory; she is in a fourth final in the space of five years at Roland Garros, and a fifth Grand Slam final overall.

    But Paolini had never even played in a Grand Slam quarter-final before this tournament, and she will look to emulate Francesca Schiavone and become the second Italian woman to win the title here.

    We take a look into how both women got to this stage, the key things to watch – and make our prediction.

    Swiatek’s Path

    Swiatek’s road to a third Roland Garros final has been defined by one match: her round two contest against Naomi Osaka .

    The world No 1 battled from the brink of defeat in that clash, saving a match point to prevail 7-6(1), 1-6, 7-5 against her fellow four-time Slam winner .

    Perhaps spurred on by that encounter, she has been dominant since then, dropping only 14 games across her next four matches.

    Swiatek overcame Marie Bouzkova 6-4, 6-2 in the third round, before double-bagelling Anastasia Potapova to reach the last eight.

    Just two games were dropped in her quarter-final against Wimbledon champion Marketa Vondrousova , and she then dispatched US Open champion Coco Gauff 6-2, 6-4 to return to the final.

    Iga Swiatek ties incredible Martina Navratilova record with Coco Gauff French Open victory

    Paolini’s Path

    Undoubtedly one to watch pre-tournament after a strong season, Paolini’s campaign started with straight-set triumphs over Daria Saville and Hailey Baptiste.

    Up next in round three, she faced a tough test in the form of Bianca Andreescu, the 2019 US Open winner who is always tough to beat – even on the comeback from injury.

    But Paolini held firm in a battling 6-1, 3-6, 6-0 triumph, and then came from a set down to beat Elina Avanesyan and reach the last eight.

    There, the 12th seed caused one of the biggest shocks of the tournament, downing world No 4 Elena Rybakina 6-2, 4-6, 6-4 to reach the last four.

    And she was a class apart in her semi-final, fending off a nervy Mirra Andreeva in straight sets to reach the biggest match of her career.

    Jannik Sinner and Jasmine Paolini lead Italian tennis surge that shows no signs of slowing down

    Head-to-Head

    This will be the third meeting between the two, and both prior encounters have been won comfortably by Swiatek.

    It has been six years since their first encounter, a round of 16 contest in Prague the Pole won 6-2, 6-1 to reach the quarter-final.

    The pair then met again at the US Open in 2022, Swiatek picking up a comprehensive 6-3, 6-0 win in round one – on her way to the title.

    Paolini has improved massively since that second encounter, but has she improved enough to turn this match-up around completely?

    Swiatek’s Key: Intensity

    The Pole is in her fifth Grand Slam final and, with a 4-0 record at this stage of a major, she certainly knows how to handle such occasions.

    She has a huge experience advantage in this contest, and may well count for something.

    Swiatek has a hugely intense style of play and this is even more noticeable in bigger matches; she loves to rush her opponents even more, suffocating them with relentless ballstriking and rapid movement around the court.

    The three-time Roland Garros winner will look to rush Paolini and make this experience as mentally demanding as possible for the 12th seed.

    Paolini’s Key: Forehand

    At 5’4, the Italian is never going to be a huge hitter, and she will need to defend her serve incredibly well throughout this contest.

    But her forehand is a strong shot and one with a surprising amount of kick considering her stature, and using this effectively is imperative for her chances.

    This was the shot that saw her hit a surprising amount of winners against Rybakina in their quarter-final and also saw her completely dictate her contest versus Andreeva.

    She will look to use this frequently throughout the final – and deflect from her serve and her backhand, which possesses nowhere near as much power.

    WTA Rankings Winners and Losers French Open: Jasmine Paolini top 10

    Prediction

    Swiatek is an overwhelming favourite for this match, and it is hard to see how Paolini will stop her on Saturday.

    The Pole has been in relentless form and after a near-flawless clay season, it is impossible to pick against her in this final.

    Paolini will give it a good go, but Swiatek should win a fifth major title.

    Our Pick: Iga Swiatek in straight sets

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