ATP Rankings scenarios at Wimbledon featuring Jannik Sinner, Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev

Wimbledon 2024 is upon us and there will once again be a lot of ranking points up for grabs, which usually leads to a few changes at the top of the ATP Rankings.

Jannik Sinner leads the way heading into the third Grand Slam of the year and he solidified his position at No 1 with his maiden title on grass at the Halle Open last week.

The Italian’s trophy run in Germany helped him to add another 410 points to his tally and it was a significant boost as it means he is assured of staying at No 1 after Wimbledon, but there is a three-way battle for the No 2 spot behind him.

ATP Rankings Top 5 Ahead Of Wimbledon

1. Jannik Sinner – 9,890 points
2. Novak Djokovic – 8,360
3. Carlos Alcaraz – 8,130
4. Alexander Zverev – 6,905
5. Daniil Medvedev – 6,445

Sinner’s points scenario

Reigning Australian Open champion Sinner reached the semi-final at Wimbledon last year so he will drop 720 points once the tournament gets underway on July 1 and that effectively puts him on 9,170 points.

He will then pick up 10 points just for showing up for his first-round match, whether he loses or not, so he will be on a minimum of 9,180 points after the tournament while a title run will help him to open up a big gap to his rivals as he will move to 11,170 points.

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Djokovic’s points scenario

Seven-time Wimbledon winner Djokovic finished runner-up to Carlos Alcaraz last year and he will drop 1,200 points, which puts him on 7,160 points before his first-round match.

There are still question marks over whether or not Djokovic will play at Wimbledon, but he will have a minimum of 7,160 points if he withdraws or a maximum of 9,160 if he wins the title – 20 points short of Sinner’s tally if the Italian loses in the first round.

Alcaraz’s points scenario

Reigning Wimbledon champion Alcaraz’s shock early exit from the Queen’s Club Championships last week has put him in a difficult position as he will drop another 2,000 points as the defending champion at SW19 and that will see him start the Grand Slam on 6,130 points.

If he successfully defends his title he will move back to 8,130 points while an early exit could see him drop to potentially fifth place in the rankings.

Zverev’s points scenario

French Open runner-up Zverev is in a good position ahead of Wimbledon as last year he reached the third round so he will only drop 90 points which puts him 6,815 points.

The bad news for Zverev is that he won’t be able to catch Sinner at No 1 even if he wins the title and moves to 8,815 points, but he is very much in the running for the No 2 ranking. He will start the tournament with more points than Alcaraz (6,815 to 6,130).

As for his points compared to that of Djokovic, the Serbian has a 345-point advantage over Zverev after last year’s points drop so the German will need to make at least the quarter-final if the former world No 1 doesn’t play.

Medvedev’s points scenario

Daniil Medvedev is not in the running for the No 1, but he could move up if he wins the title. The Russian will drop 720 points after making it to the last four last year. A title run will see him move to 7,725 points. He would need his other rivals to fall early to move up to No 2.