Beryl expected to make Texas landfall early Monday

July 5 (UPI) -- After striking islands in the southwest Caribbean last week, Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to return to hurricane strength before hitting Texas early Monday, leaving most of the state's coastline under hurricane warnings and watches.

In its 1 p.m. CDT update Sunday, the National Hurricane Center said Beryl was about 165 miles from Matagorda Bay, moving toward land at about 10 mph.

The storm currently has sustained winds of 65 mph after increasing in intensity earlier in the day and is traveling northwest through the Gulf of Mexico. It is being monitored by Air Force reconnaissance aircraft.

"Winds are first expected to reach tropical storm strength by late today, making outdoor preparations difficult or dangerous," the NHC warned.

On top of the high winds, a storm surge combined with high tide will cause even normally dry areas of the coast to be flooded. Water could reach heights of up to six feet around the Mesquite and Matagorda bays.

It would be the first U.S. landfall of the 2024 hurricane season, which began on June 1. And it was the earliest Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic on record. Texas residents are bracing for impact.

"We pray and we hope for nothing more of a rain event, but even a rain event may be very heavy," Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick said."We prepare at the state for the worst-case scenario."

Several counties along the Texas Coast have asked residents to evacuate. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has issued severe weather disaster declarations for 40 counties.

Rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with a localized amount of 15 inches is expected across portions of the Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas beginning late Sunday through the middle of next week.

"Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally considerable, is likely across portions of the Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas beginning late Sunday through the middle of next week," NHC forecaster Jack Bevin said. "River flooding is also possible."

Despite the prediction the storm is expected to intensify, it will be difficult for the once Category 5 storm to reach it former levels.

"Beryl's structure this morning is a shadow of its former self in the Caribbean, with the low-level center partially exposed and displaced south of the best mid-level rotation and deep convection," NHC forecaster Philippe Papin said.

Landfall is key for determining the point where heavy rain will land, Accuweather meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said.

"At this time, the eye is forecast to move inland," he said. "However, wobbles with the center and the possibility that the storm may try to turn to the north upon nearing the coast at the last minute could push landfall significantly farther to the north in Texas.

Since 1850, more than 50 hurricanes have made landfall in Texas .

The last one was when Nicholas, a Category 1 hurricane, came ashore in Matagorda County in 2021.

In 2008, Hurricane Ike devastated the Upper Texas Coast, making landfall at Galveston on Sept. 13. And in 2017, Harvey dumped several feet of rain and resulted in catastrophic flooding in the Houston area.

"Beryl is a more compact system than Harvey, but it will most likely gain some size and moisture upon approaching Texas," Sosnowski said. "While slowing down for a time, Beryl should maintain a steady forward speed while moving inland, and a repeat of Harvey is not expected."

At least nine people have died from Beryl: two in Jamaica, three in Venezuela, three in Grenada and one person in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

Beryl made landfall about 5 north of Tulum in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula at 6:05 a.m. Friday as a Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph. Around 1,170 temporary shelters were installed in the area, according to a news release Thursday from the state's government.