Beryl on track to slam Texas early Monday, before racing across US this week

Expected to strengthen back into a hurricane, Beryl will pose risks ranging from flooding to damaging winds to tornadoes as it makes landfall in Texas early Monday, and then through midweek as it tracks well inland.

Key Takeaways:

• Beryl is forecast to restrengthen into a hurricane at the last minute before making landfall across the eastern Texas coast early Monday morning.

• Last-minute storm preparations in Texas should be rushed to completion, as Beryl can bring damaging winds, storm surge flooding, inland flooding from rain, damaging wind gusts and even tornadoes.

• Beryl's effects will be felt far beyond the Lone Star State early this week, as the storm will race north and east through the central U.S. and eventually the Great Lakes region, bringing heavy rain and a continued risk for a few tornadoes.

Well over a week after forming over the Atlantic, Beryl was lining up for a third landfall early in the new week, this time in the U.S., as the storm barreled toward Texas on Sunday, said AccuWeather meteorologists. Expected to strengthen back into a hurricane before moving inland, strong winds, flooding and tornadoes are among the hazards the Lone Star State faces.

Despite an expected loss in wind intensity after landfall, Beryl's impacts will not end in Texas, but rather expand across the central states and into a portion of the Great Lakes later in the week. Flooding rains and even a few twisters will be the primary concerns as what is left of the storm works its way through the nation's heartland.

On track for a Texas landfall early Monday

The second tropical system to affect Texas (after Alberto last month) and the first to make a U.S. landfall this season, Beryl is mere hours away from moving inland over Texas, warn AccuWeather meteorologists. The storm was churning over the Gulf of Mexico a couple hundred miles to the east of South Texas as of midday Sunday. It was beginning to reorganize after losing wind intensity over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula late last week.

Despite struggling since Mexico with dry air and strong winds aloft, both detrimental to the health of a tropical system, Beryl is moving over very warm Gulf waters and will likely become a hurricane again by Sunday night. "Beryl is likely to be intensifying as it comes ashore in Texas early Monday," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski.

AccuWeather hurricane experts expect a landfall on the Texas coast early Monday morning between Port O’Connor and Matagorda. Well in advance of the center of the storm moving ashore, outer rain bands can bring flooding downpours and a risk of tornadoes to eastern Texas, including in the highly populated Houston area. Closer to landfall, dangerous storm surge flooding can begin along the coast.

"Beryl is expected to produce a damaging and life-threatening storm surge as high as 6-10 feet in and around Matagorda Bay," said Pydynowski. "This will also push water into smaller bays like Lavaca Bay and bring storm surge flooding to towns such as Point Comfort and Port Lavaca."

One of the deadliest aspects of a tropical system is storm surge, which can and is expected with Beryl to impact areas hundreds of miles away from the point of landfall.

"Surge as high as 3-6 feet can extend northward all the way to Galveston Bay and southward to South Padre Island," added Pydynowski. "Essentially, the threat for storm surge flooding and coastal inundation will extend along the entire Texas Gulf Coast."

In addition to the threat posed at the coast from storm surge, rough surf and rip currents will also precede and accompany the higher water levels from Beryl. This risk will also expand across the entire Gulf coast east to Florida.

The area near landfall in eastern Texas will also have to endure the strongest wind gusts from Beryl, likely in the range of 80-100 mph. Tropical storm and near-hurricane force wind gusts can also stretch far away from the center on Monday, impacting Texas cities such as Brownsville, Corpus Christi, Houston and Tyler.

There remains a chance that Beryl can strengthen beyond a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale before landfall, which would only magnify the effects of the wind.

"These strong winds will down trees, cause power outages and significant property damage," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Tyler Roys. "Power outages can last for days to weeks in the hardest-hit areas."

While hurricanes are considered phenomena of the ocean, freshwater flooding from heavy rain can be a killer that extends far inland from the point of landfall. Meteorologists are warning that rainfall tallying up to the AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 24 inches can fall over a span of less than a day across eastern Texas into Monday and Monday night.

"The most intense rainfall, ranging from 8 to 12 inches in most areas, will occur near the storm’s landfall location along the east-central Texas coast, extending up to Houston and Tyler," added Roys. Many of the same spots in this zone have had a very wet spring and early summer, which led to deadly flooding.

In addition, a tornado risk will exist ahead of, during and after Beryl's landfall, mainly to the north and east of the storm's center. It is nearly impossible to predict exactly where such tornadoes, often obscured by heavy, tropical rains, will occur, so it is important for residents and businesses to have a way to receive warnings, such as by using the AccuWeather App.

All told, Beryl is a 1 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in the U.S. due to the threat posed by storm surge flooding, wind and rain.

In advance of Beryl's arrival, Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick has issued a disaster declaration for 120 counties spanning central and eastern Texas.

Landfalling hurricanes are somewhat rare during the month of July in Texas. According to Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach, only nine have made landfall in the Lone Star State since reliable records began in 1851, the most recent being Hanna in 2020.

From Texas to Canada: Beryl impacts to stretch well inland

As is typical with most tropical cyclones after moving inland, Beryl is expected to quickly lose wind intensity as it moves north into Texas early in the week. A similar impact was observed late last week in Mexico, where Beryl made its second landfall after grazing Jamaica and making landfall in Carriacou in the Caribbean earlier in the week.

Despite the easing of wind impacts, other threats will remain deep into the new workweek as the storm races off to the north and east, warn AccuWeather meteorologists.

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"As Beryl moves inland, it will lose wind intensity and transition into a tropical rainstorm," said Pydynowski. "However, rain bands and squalls located to the east and southeast of Beryl’s center will contain a lot of spinning motion, which can spawn tornadoes."

While the threat of tornadoes will be greatest in Texas early this week, that risk can extend across the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys and even as far north and east as the eastern Great Lakes by midweek.

"These tornadoes can be particularly dangerous as they can develop very quickly in fast-moving t-storms and can be obscured by downpours or darkness if they occur at nighttime," warned Pydynowski.

The biggest, most widespread concern from Beryl as a rainstorm will be from heavy rain. Besides Texas, AccuWeather meteorologists are forecasting the storm to bring at least an inch of rain to portions of nearly a dozen other states from Louisiana to New York. The storm's tentacles will even reach into Canada by late in the week.

The heaviest rainfall will follow Beryl's track through Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois and Indiana through late Tuesday, where up to 8 inches can fall. Since the storm will be moving fast, this rain can fall in just a matter of hours, leading to reduced visibility for motorists and flash flooding on highways and in poor-drainage areas.

Detroit, Indianapolis, Little Rock, and St. Louis are among the cities where a few inches of rain can fall from Beryl this week, leading to slow travel and airport delays.

Despite the prospects of tropical downpours impacting travel and summer plans, some along the storm's path are actually looking forward to receiving a dousing of rain from Beryl.

"Large portions of the southern U.S. are experiencing drought conditions," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Alexander Duffus. "This rainfall can help to alleviate that, although for some it will come as too much at once."

In addition, the broad flow to the east of the storm across the Eastern Seaboard will pull rich, tropical moisture north from the Gulf of Mexico through the Southeast and toward the mid-Atlantic throughout the week, leading to flooding downpours from showers and thunderstorms, but also some drought relief from northern Florida to eastern Pennsylvania.

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