Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico could soon stir up new tropical trouble

While many eyes have been watching Debby in the eastern United States, a tropical wave chugging westward over the Caribbean could find a way to impact southern Texas this weekend.

AccuWeather meteorologists have been tracking new tropical waves of low pressure since early last week. One feature continues to move along in the Caribbean Sea with the chance that this system may evolve over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Another tropical wave was located thousands of miles farther to the east over the Atlantic Ocean.

"Wind shear is generally low, the atmosphere is moist and water temperatures are plenty warm to foster development later this week to this weekend for the leading tropical wave," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said, "However, the feature has run out of open water and will run into Central America and southern Mexico into the weekend."

Wind shear refers to the disruptive breezes that change direction or blow strongly in one direction, which can hinder tropical development or cause an established tropical system to lose wind intensity. The critical threshold for water temperatures is about 78 F. Water temperatures are well into the 80s in the path of the storm, and the depth of that warm water is significant. This means as a storm begins to churn surface water through wave action, the waters are unlikely to cool significantly.

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There is a range in the potential track of the tropical feature.

One path may take the feature straight into part of Central America or southern Mexico, where land interaction may put a stop to any development.

Another path would take it more to the northwest, where it would enter the southwestern or central Gulf of Mexico after interacting with Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.

For this reason, areas from eastern Mexico to South Texas should monitor the feature's progress.

AccuWeather currently has a low risk of tropical development for the feature once it enters the southern Gulf of Mexico, which is down from earlier in the week, due to land interaction.

Even if it fails to evolve into a tropical depression or tropical storm, it will spread drenching showers and gusty thunderstorms westward to parts of Central America and southeastern Mexico before the end of the week. Enough rain may fall to lead to urban flooding as well as flash flooding of small streams in the area. In hilly areas, the risk of mudslides will increase. Fishing and boating interests should monitor the feature as well.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely to increase over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico from Friday to Sunday. If a full-fledged tropical storm develops in this area, landfall may occur later in the weekend to early next week.

If the tropical wave fails to develop on the Atlantic side, it could spur development on the Pacific side next week.

A second area, much farther east, will also bear watching for tropical development early next week. That system will interact with varying amounts of dry air and wind shear as it drifts westward over the tropical Atlantic into the weekend. It will approach the Lesser Antilles later this weekend to early next week.

Three of the four named tropical systems so far this season have tracked through or developed near the western Gulf of Mexico: Alberto, Beryl and Chris. Beryl was a record-setting storm for the area it affected and how strong it became so early in the season. Debby, which made landfall in northern Florida, was the first named storm so far to avoid the region.

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