AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Vermont’s state primaries

WASHINGTON (AP) — Two Democrats will compete in Vermont’s state primary on Tuesday for the right to challenge four-term Republican Gov. Phil Scott in November. The race is the highest profile of a handful of contested primaries on the ballot.

Voters will also decide primaries for lieutenant governor and additional contested races for the heavily Democratic state legislature.

Esther Charlestin and Peter Duval are vying for the Democratic nomination for governor. Charlestin is an educator and former member of the Middlebury Selectboard. She is endorsed by former Democratic Gov. Howard Dean, Lt. Gov. David Zuckerman and Burlington Mayor Emma Mulvaney-Stanak.

Duval is a computer scientist and former Underhill Selectboard member who ran for governor as an independent in 2022. His website states that “I am going to lose this election,” a message held over from his previous run, but says a vote for him will help elevate environmental issues in state politics. He also encourages Republicans and progressives to write in his name in their party primaries.

Scott is unopposed for his party’s nomination. Despite being a Republican governor in a heavily Democratic state, he remains a popular figure. He received 69% of the vote in the 2022 general election. Scott has been a critic of Republican Donald Trump and endorsed former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley for president. He says he was one of the 66% of Vermont voters who cast their ballots for Democrat Joe Biden in 2020.

Both Democrats and Republicans will hold contested primaries for lieutenant governor. Zuckerman is seeking reelection to a fourth term. He had served four years in the post when he lost his bid for governor against Scott but returned to office two years later. He has drawn a primary challenge from Democrat Thomas Renner, the deputy mayor and city councilmember in Winooski, who previously served as an aide to Democratic U.S. Sen. Patrick Leahy.

John Rodgers and Gregory Thayer are running for the Republican nomination for lieutenant governor. Thayer is an accountant from Rutland, where he previously served as an alderman and chair of the local Republican Party. He also ran for lieutenant governor in 2022, losing the Republican primary with 44% of the vote. Rodgers is from the state’s conservative Northeast Kingdom and served as a Democrat in the state House and the state Senate for a combined 16 years. In 2018, he ran unsuccessfully for the Democratic nomination for governor as a write-in candidate. He has Scott’s endorsement.

Although now running as a Republican, Rodgers said in a July debate that he will not vote for Donald Trump in November. Thayer, on the other hand, was a delegate at the Milwaukee convention in July and attended the riot at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, demonstrating in favor of overturning Trump’s defeat in the presidential election. In the July debate, he said he did not enter the building and that he did not regret his participation. When asked by the moderator whether he would return to the Capitol if Trump lost again in November, he said, “I’m going to wait to see what happens with the election.”

Topping the Vermont ballots are the races for U.S. Senate and U.S. House, but independent U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders and Democratic U.S. Rep. Becca Balint are both unopposed for the Democratic nominations. Their Republican challengers are also running unopposed. Also running unopposed are candidates for treasurer, secretary of state, attorney general and auditor.

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In Vermont, the governor, lieutenant governor and other state constitutional officers serve two-year terms.

All state legislative seats are up for election, although only 10 state Senate and 15 state House primaries feature more candidates running than the number of slots available. Democrats enjoy about three-to-one majorities in both chambers.

Here’s a look at what to expect on Tuesday:

Primary day

The Vermont state primaries will be held Tuesday. Polls close at 7 p.m. ET.

What’s on the ballot

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in contested primaries for governor, lieutenant governor, state Senate and state House.

Who gets to vote

Any registered voter may participate in any party’s primary. Vermont does not register voters by party.

Decision notes

Burlington and South Burlington have the largest populations in the state, followed by Colchester, Rutland and Bennington. But Vermont has more than 200 towns and municipalities across the state, and a candidate with support from the state’s more rural areas could overcome a candidate who wins in the most populous areas.

In the race for lieutenant governor, Thayer carried 81 of 247 municipalities in the 2022 primary, performing best in the five counties making up the southern half of the state. As a Trump critic running in a Republican primary, Rodgers may look to Haley’s victory in the March presidential primary as a possible path to the nomination. Haley performed well in the Burlington and Montpelier areas and throughout central Vermont and pockets in the south.

For state legislative primaries, the number of winners in each contest varies by district. With multiple winners in many seats and relatively low turnout for down-ballot primaries, especially on the Republican side, determining the winners could come down to a relatively small number of votes.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

A candidate may request a recount if the vote margin reaches a certain threshold. In federal, statewide and state Senate elections, a recount may be requested if the vote margin between the winning and losing candidate is 2% or less of the total votes cast, divided by the number of persons to be elected for that position. For state House and local races, the required margin is 5% or less of the total votes cast, divided by the number of persons to be elected.

The AP may declare a winner in a race that is eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

What do turnout and advance vote look like?

As of July, there were 498,853 registered voters in Vermont.

In the 2022 midterm primaries, combined turnout was about 27% of registered voters. About 34% of votes in that election were cast before primary day.

As of Wednesday, a total of 14,871 ballots had been cast before primary day.

How long does vote-counting usually take?

In the 2022 midterm primaries, the AP first reported results at 7:21 p.m. ET, or 21 minutes after polls closed. The election night tabulation ended at 2:16 a.m. ET with about 96% of total ballots counted.

Are we there yet?

As of Tuesday, there will be 84 days until the November general election.

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Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2024 election at https://apnews.com/hub/election-2024.