High interest rates have dimmed the solar sector. Will coming cuts put a shine on their stocks?

NEW YORK (AP) — More sunshine could be in the forecast for solar power companies like SolarEdge Technologies and Sunrun, whose stock prices have been dimmed by high interest rates.

Wall Street is betting that those high rates could start coming down by September. The Fed’s key rate is at a two-decade high, making borrowing expensive and difficult. That’s hampered financing for the residential solar sector and weighed down companies with growing inventory backlogs.

Interest rate cuts should trickle down to consumers and businesses. Most home solar projects are financed, with homeowners taking out loans for the installation. Often, companies allow homeowners to sign a lease for the equipment, which means the companies themselves need financing in order to operate.

Shares of SolarEdge, one of the biggest makers of rooftop panels and other solar power equipment, have slumped 76% in 2024, while more traditional energy giants like Exxon and Chevron have been rising.

The residential solar industry is also dealing with big rule changes in the key California market, which cut the value of electricity generated via rooftop solar systems. The sector remains sensitive to changes in state policies.

The Solar Energy Industries Association expects 2024 to remain a weak year for the residential solar market. The first quarter of 2024 was the weakest quarter in two years.

SunPower, once one of the biggest solar technology companies with a market value of $10 billion, recently filed for bankruptcy. The stock shed 73% in 2023 and is down another 90% in 2024, trading for less than $1.

In July, SolarEdge Technologies announced it would cut 400 employees as it faces an inventory backlog. That followed an announcement a month earlier that a customer had filed for bankruptcy and might not be able to pay its $11.4 million debt.

Most of the sector has tumbled, though FirstSolar has been an outlier, rising thanks to subsidies gained through the Inflation Reduction Act signed into law in 2022.

Projections for solar energy growth were strong coming into 2024. The Energy Information Administration forecast that U.S. solar power generation, along with wind power, would lead growth in the broader U.S. power generation sector. It expects solar power generation to grow 75% between 2023 and 2025.

Other power sources will still make up the vast majority of power generation, but coal power generation is expected to contract, while natural gas and nuclear power generation remain flat.