Analysis: J.J. McCarthy’s injury will have minimal impact this year if Sam Darnold performs well

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J.J. McCarthy’s season-ending knee injury is a major blow for the rookie quarterback and the Minnesota Vikings.

Still, it’ll have minimal impact this year if Sam Darnold performs well.

The Vikings paid Darnold $10 million to replace Kirk Cousins for a season with a plan to allow McCarthy to watch from the sideline and learn. Darnold was slated to be the starting QB in Week 1 and there’s no guarantee he would’ve relinquished the job to McCarthy.

If he did, that would’ve likely meant the team struggled. In a tough NFC North featuring Detroit, Green Bay and revamped Chicago, a poor start could doom Minnesota. The over/under wins total for the Vikings is 6 1/2, according to BetMGM Sportsbook. McCarthy’s injury didn’t move the total because they weren’t expected to be a playoff team.

There was a ton of excitement surrounding McCarthy, who led Michigan to a national title last season. The Vikings traded up twice in the first round of the NFL draft to get him with the 10th pick, hoping to land their franchise quarterback for the next decade.

McCarthy’s preseason debut — 11 of 17 for 188 yards, two touchdowns and one interception — cranked up the enthusiasm. His meniscus injury is disappointing for everyone in Minnesota.

But he’s still the future. He wasn’t supposed to be the present so the 2024 season isn’t lost.

“As excited as I was to draft him, he’s confirmed everything that I hoped to see, not only early on through training camp, first performance last Saturday, but he should — our fanbase and everyone should just be excited about the fact that we’ve got our young franchise quarterback, I believe, in the building,” coach Kevin O’Connell said.

“And now, it’s just about the unique aspect of continuing a very critical development process for him where maybe the physical reps aren’t going to be there in the short term. But this is going to be a small bump in the road. Other quarterbacks in our league have gone through similar things early on in their journey and come back stronger and better than ever. And that is not only my expectation — I know that is going to happen for J.J.”

Several rookie QBs step in and play right away with varying degrees of success. It worked out perfectly for C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans last season. Stroud was the AP Offensive Rookie of the Year and helped the team go from worst to first in the AFC South. Bryce Young had a rough year in Carolina and Anthony Richardson was derailed by injuries.

Many teams are more patient with young QBs. Of the 24 quarterbacks drafted in the first round since 2018, nine started Week 1. Only Stroud and Mac Jones led their teams to the playoffs as rookies.

Even three-time Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes waited a season behind Alex Smith in Kansas City.

One way to view a negative situation in a positive way is to consider that Darnold will have an opportunity to play more freely with less pressure. He’s the man in Minnesota win or lose and he has talent around him led by superstar wide receiver Justin Jefferson.

Darnold won’t have to look over his shoulder every time he makes a poor decision, throws an incomplete pass or interception. There’s also a possibility that Darnold will thrive in a solid environment with strong coaching.

He’s only 27 and this could be his last opportunity to live up to the hype of being a No. 3 pick in 2018. Darnold only lasted three seasons with the woeful Jets and now is on his fourth team in five years. But he was 4-2 and played better in Carolina in 2022 before backing up Brock Purdy last season in San Francisco.

“I think our offense has potential to be good,” Darnold said, avoiding a question about his potential. “We have to work every single day. If we do that, we’ll be all right.”

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