These are the current Maxwell projections for this weekend.
The projections are a combination of the current Maxwell ratings and actual scoring patterns. For example, in football, scores of 0, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 are significantly more likely than scores such as 1, 2, 4, 5, and 11, and a score of 28 is much more likely than a score of 29.
Aside from the team information, shown below is each game’s rating, the probability of the favorite winning, the median score for each team, and the median margin of victory for the favorite.
The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game in proportion to how often each team would win. This rating favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.
The median score for each team is the score that team would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated. For example, if a team’s median score is 20, then at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or less and at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or more. The median margin of victory is the difference between each team’s median score and thus the margin that the favorite would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated.
Sep 26
| Favorite | | | | Underdog |
---|
Rating | Class | Team | Pct | Median Scores | Median Margin | Team | Class |
---|
62.55 | AAAAAA | Peachtree Ridge | 77.6% | 27-14 | 13 | Duluth | AAAAAA |
60.41 | AA Public | Morgan County | 76.5% | 28-18 | 10 | Westside (Macon) | AA Public |
48.26 | AAAAA | Tri-Cities | 50.9% | 21-21 | 0 | Lakeside (Atlanta) | AAAAA |
32.77 | AA Public | Therrell | 71.6% | 21-13 | 8 | Washington | AA Public |
12.26 | AA Public | Spencer | 98.7% | 35-0 | 35 | Kendrick | AA Public |
11.28 | AAAA | Tucker | 99.6% | 43-0 | 43 | Northview | AAAA |
10.37 | AA Public | Salem | 68.4% | 24-17 | 7 | Stone Mountain | AAA Public |
2.07 | GIAA AA-A | Flint River Academy | 98.2% | 36-0 | 36 | Cross Keys | AAAA |
-0.31 | AA Public | Sumter County | 99.9% | 42-0 | 42 | Jordan | AA Public |
-11.91 | A Division I Public | Towers | 98.8% | 36-0 | 36 | Southeast Whitfield | AAAA |
Sep 27
| Favorite | | | | Underdog |
---|
Rating | Class | Team | Pct | Median Scores | Median Margin | Team | Class |
---|
93.43 | AAAAA | Lee County | 76.6% | 35-27 | 8 | Thomas County Central | AAAAA |
88.37 | AAAA | Ware County | 52.2% | 24-23 | 1 | Benedictine | AAAA |
86.31 | AAAAAA | Colquitt County | 53.1% | 21-21 | 0 | Lowndes | AAAAAA |
84.73 | AAAAAA | Valdosta | 60.0% | 28-27 | 1 | Camden County | AAAAAA |
79.97 | AAAA | Blessed Trinity | 67.8% | 21-14 | 7 | Savannah Christian | Smaller Private |
79.20 | AAAAAA | East Coweta | 53.5% | 21-21 | 0 | Cambridge | AAAA |
72.72 | AAAAAA | Grayson | 85.2% | 30-14 | 16 | Newton | AAAAAA |
72.69 | AAAAA | River Ridge | 55.3% | 21-19 | 2 | Sequoyah | AAAAA |
70.09 | AAAA | Central (Carrollton) | 69.6% | 28-20 | 8 | Jonesboro | AAAA |
68.88 | AA Public | Appling County | 57.3% | 20-15 | 5 | Fitzgerald | A Division I Public |
68.46 | AAAAA | Hughes | 89.3% | 32-14 | 18 | Newnan | AAAAA |
68.08 | AAA Public | Peach County | 75.0% | 31-21 | 10 | Westover | AAA Public |
67.20 | AAAAA | Milton | 99.1% | 35-0 | 35 | Seckinger | AAAAA |
64.52 | A Division I Public | Northeast | 50.5% | 23-22 | 1 | Dublin | A Division I Public |
64.46 | AAA Public | Oconee County | 65.8% | 23-17 | 6 | Cherokee Bluff | AAA Public |
63.51 | AAAAAA | Richmond Hill | 86.5% | 28-12 | 16 | Tift County | AAAAAA |
63.24 | AAAA | Stockbridge | 52.8% | 23-21 | 2 | Jones County | AAAA |
62.92 | AAAAAA | Brookwood | 61.6% | 28-23 | 5 | Parkview | AAAAAA |
61.30 | AAAAA | Lakeside (Evans) | 76.5% | 26-14 | 12 | Effingham County | AAAAA |
61.28 | AAAA | Perry | 82.5% | 32-19 | 13 | New Hampstead | AAAA |
60.97 | AAAAA | Coffee | 98.6% | 34-0 | 34 | Northside (Warner Robins) | AAAAA |
60.28 | AAAA | Harris County | 81.0% | 23-8 | 15 | Northside (Columbus) | AAAA |
59.60 | A Division II | Irwin County | 79.7% | 28-16 | 12 | Clinch County | A Division II |
59.57 | AAAAA | Brunswick | 87.5% | 29-13 | 16 | Glynn Academy | AAAAA |
58.48 | Smaller Private | Prince Avenue Christian | 90.0% | 35-14 | 21 | Hart County | AA Public |
58.40 | AAA Public | Mary Persons | 56.3% | 20-17 | 3 | Upson-Lee | AAA Public |
57.95 | AAAAAA | Mill Creek | 98.5% | 35-0 | 35 | Central Gwinnett | AAAAAA |
57.88 | AAA Public | Cairo | 77.8% | 24-13 | 11 | Bainbridge | AAA Public |
57.85 | AAAAA | Creekview | 86.3% | 27-7 | 20 | Woodstock | AAAAA |
57.48 | A Division II | Manchester | 67.9% | 22-15 | 7 | Trion | A Division II |
57.43 | AA Public | Hapeville Charter | 70.7% | 21-13 | 8 | Carver (Atlanta) | AA Public |
56.83 | Smaller Private | Lovett | 80.0% | 27-14 | 13 | Holy Innocents | Smaller Private |
56.69 | AAA Public | Calhoun | 84.3% | 28-14 | 14 | Adairsville | AAA Public |
55.86 | AAAAA | Lanier | 77.7% | 28-19 | 9 | Chattahoochee | AAAAA |
54.31 | AAAA | Ola | 85.4% | 21-0 | 21 | Union Grove | AAAA |
54.25 | A Division I Public | Elbert County | 51.0% | 21-21 | 0 | Commerce | A Division I Public |
53.62 | AAA Public | Cedar Grove | 85.9% | 27-9 | 18 | Mount Zion (Jonesboro) | AAA Public |
53.60 | Smaller Private | Fellowship Christian | 78.1% | 28-17 | 11 | Mount Vernon | Smaller Private |
53.28 | A Division I Public | Thomasville | 91.5% | 31-7 | 24 | Jeff Davis | A Division I Public |
52.51 | AA Public | Pierce County | 95.5% | 28-0 | 28 | Vidalia | A Division I Public |
52.33 | Smaller Private | Hebron Christian | 90.6% | 32-13 | 19 | East Jackson | AA Public |
52.32 | AAAA | Eastside | 95.7% | 34-0 | 34 | Madison County | AAAA |
51.67 | AA Public | Thomson | 78.5% | 24-13 | 11 | Laney | AA Public |
51.58 | AAA Public | Dougherty | 69.0% | 24-17 | 7 | Monroe | AAA Public |
51.48 | AAAAA | Winder-Barrow | 78.5% | 28-16 | 12 | Habersham Central | AAAAA |
51.36 | AAA Public | Lumpkin County | 53.9% | 25-23 | 2 | White County | AAA Public |
51.02 | AAAA | Marist | 99.3% | 42-0 | 42 | Southwest DeKalb | AAAA |
50.85 | AAAA | Warner Robins | 98.2% | 37-0 | 37 | Wayne County | AAAA |
50.83 | AAA Public | Baldwin | 60.5% | 21-17 | 4 | West Laurens | AAA Public |
50.76 | AAAAAA | Collins Hill | 98.7% | 37-0 | 37 | Mountain View | AAAAAA |
50.73 | AAAAAA | Douglas County | 99.0% | 38-0 | 38 | Columbia | AA Public |
50.58 | AAAA | East Forsyth | 85.6% | 28-12 | 16 | Flowery Branch | AAAA |
49.57 | A Division I Public | Bremen | 62.8% | 24-20 | 4 | Temple | A Division I Public |
49.36 | AAA Public | Howard | 56.8% | 23-21 | 2 | Aquinas | Smaller Private |
49.23 | AAA Public | Whitewater | 89.0% | 30-12 | 18 | Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg) | Smaller Private |
49.14 | A Division II | Metter | 64.2% | 20-14 | 6 | Emanuel County Institute | A Division II |
48.97 | AAAA | Hiram | 85.4% | 31-16 | 15 | Dalton | AAAA |
48.10 | AAAAAA | North Atlanta | 91.4% | 30-7 | 23 | Alpharetta | AAAAAA |
47.77 | AAAAA | Houston County | 97.5% | 41-7 | 34 | Veterans | AAAAA |
47.57 | AAAAA | New Manchester | 84.1% | 28-14 | 14 | Alexander | AAAAA |
47.52 | AAAAA | Northgate | 53.9% | 18-16 | 2 | McIntosh | AAAAA |
47.43 | AAAAA | Decatur | 91.7% | 34-14 | 20 | Dunwoody | AAAAA |
46.94 | GIAA AAAA-AAA | Bulloch Academy | 60.7% | 21-18 | 3 | Tattnall Square | GIAA AAAA-AAA |
46.74 | A Division I Public | Dodge County | 82.5% | 30-17 | 13 | Southwest | A Division I Public |
46.64 | A Division II | Early County | 75.0% | 21-7 | 14 | Seminole County | A Division II |
46.23 | AAAA | Centennial | 77.4% | 27-15 | 12 | Chapel Hill | AAAAAA |
46.13 | AAA Public | Northwest Whitfield | 88.0% | 27-7 | 20 | Heritage (Ringgold) | AAA Public |
45.88 | AAA Public | North Hall | 78.7% | 28-14 | 14 | Pickens | AAA Public |
45.72 | AAAAAA | North Gwinnett | 99.8% | 42-0 | 42 | Berkmar | AAAAAA |
45.32 | AAAAA | Gainesville | 99.2% | 40-0 | 40 | Johns Creek | AAAAA |
45.25 | AAAA | Pace Academy | 69.2% | 18-8 | 10 | Drew | AAAA |
45.21 | AAAAA | Evans | 83.1% | 28-14 | 14 | South Effingham | AAAAA |
44.86 | AAAAA | Woodward Academy | 96.8% | 35-0 | 35 | Arabia Mountain | AAAAA |
44.81 | A Division II | Schley County | 56.2% | 22-21 | 1 | Macon County | A Division II |
44.72 | A Division II | Wilcox County | 55.1% | 17-14 | 3 | Telfair County | A Division II |
44.33 | AAAAAA | Cherokee | 97.2% | 38-6 | 32 | Etowah | AAAAAA |
44.27 | AAAA | Eagle's Landing | 57.4% | 28-24 | 4 | Locust Grove | AAAA |
44.01 | AAAAA | Greenbrier | 79.2% | 28-17 | 11 | Bradwell Institute | AAAAA |
43.86 | AA Public | Callaway | 88.4% | 31-13 | 18 | Pike County | AA Public |
43.62 | AAA Public | Jefferson | 98.5% | 38-0 | 38 | West Hall | AAA Public |
43.48 | A Division I Public | Chattooga | 63.3% | 26-21 | 5 | Gordon Lee | A Division I Public |
42.46 | AAAAA | Villa Rica | 90.0% | 33-13 | 20 | Lithia Springs | AAAAA |
42.24 | A Division I Public | Putnam County | 73.7% | 28-20 | 8 | Social Circle | A Division I Public |
42.18 | A Division I Public | Lamar County | 80.9% | 25-12 | 13 | McNair | A Division I Public |
42.10 | AAAAA | Dutchtown | 94.6% | 34-6 | 28 | Banneker | AAAAA |
42.07 | AAAAAA | South Gwinnett | 97.8% | 34-0 | 34 | Grovetown | AAAAAA |
41.87 | AAA Public | Southeast Bulloch | 84.0% | 24-7 | 17 | Liberty County | AAA Public |
41.07 | A Division II | Wheeler County | 58.5% | 21-20 | 1 | Hawkinsville | A Division II |
40.88 | A Division I Public | Rabun County | 93.3% | 32-7 | 25 | Providence Christian | Smaller Private |
40.78 | A Division I Public | ACE Charter | 77.6% | 31-20 | 11 | East Laurens | A Division I Public |
40.66 | AAA Public | Stephenson | 91.1% | 33-12 | 21 | North Clayton | AAA Public |
40.44 | GIAA AA-A | Brentwood School | 58.2% | 24-21 | 3 | Briarwood Academy | GIAA AA-A |
40.31 | AA Public | Rockmart | 95.5% | 34-0 | 34 | Sonoraville | AA Public |
40.28 | Smaller Private | Whitefield Academy | 87.3% | 27-7 | 20 | Mount Paran Christian | Smaller Private |
40.03 | AAAAA | Jackson County | 92.2% | 31-7 | 24 | Alcovy | AAAAA |
39.87 | Smaller Private | Greater Atlanta Christian | 89.3% | 28-7 | 21 | Dawson County | AAA Public |
39.81 | AAAA | Hampton | 87.2% | 30-14 | 16 | Woodland (Stockbridge) | AAAA |
38.99 | AAAA | Cass | 96.8% | 35-2 | 33 | Woodland (Cartersville) | AAAA |
38.91 | AAA Public | Monroe Area | 93.3% | 33-7 | 26 | East Hall | AAA Public |
38.82 | AAA Public | Harlem | 93.8% | 28-0 | 28 | Richmond Academy | AAA Public |
38.78 | AAAAA | Lovejoy | 94.7% | 31-0 | 31 | Morrow | AAAAA |
38.67 | A Division II | Greene County | 89.1% | 24-0 | 24 | Miller Grove | AA Public |
37.93 | AAAAA | Shiloh | 80.2% | 22-8 | 14 | Chamblee | AAAAA |
37.75 | Smaller Private | Darlington | 84.6% | 28-14 | 14 | Pepperell | A Division I Public |
37.40 | AAAA | North Oconee | 99.8% | 42-0 | 42 | Cedar Shoals | AAAA |
36.40 | A Division I Public | Heard County | 84.5% | 26-7 | 19 | Haralson County | A Division I Public |
36.31 | AAAA | Creekside | 99.6% | 41-0 | 41 | M.L. King | AAAA |
36.31 | A Division I Public | Worth County | 92.8% | 34-9 | 25 | Brantley County | A Division I Public |
35.67 | AAAAA | Clarke Central | 98.3% | 40-0 | 40 | Apalachee | AAAAA |
35.63 | GIAA AAAA-AAA | Stratford Academy | 86.2% | 29-14 | 15 | John Milledge Academy | GIAA AAAA-AAA |
35.60 | A Division II | Pelham | 79.3% | 27-14 | 13 | Randolph-Clay | A Division II |
35.47 | A Division II | Jenkins County | 88.3% | 28-9 | 19 | Screven County | A Division II |
35.41 | AAAAAA | Rockdale County | 55.6% | 17-14 | 3 | Heritage (Conyers) | AAAAAA |
35.17 | AA Public | Union County | 84.0% | 27-10 | 17 | Lakeview Ft. Oglethorpe | AA Public |
35.15 | AAAA | Lithonia | 68.9% | 22-14 | 8 | Druid Hills | AAAA |
34.99 | A Division II | Charlton County | 85.8% | 28-13 | 15 | Lanier County | A Division II |
34.86 | A Division II | Brooks County | 97.6% | 35-0 | 35 | Turner County | A Division II |
33.51 | A Division II | Johnson County | 76.0% | 26-14 | 12 | Hancock Central | A Division II |
33.30 | AAA Public | Hephzibah | 71.1% | 30-22 | 8 | Cross Creek | AAA Public |
33.17 | AAAA | Eagle's Landing Christian | 68.4% | 21-14 | 7 | McDonough | AAAA |
32.66 | AA Public | Stephens County | 97.0% | 35-0 | 35 | Franklin County | AA Public |
32.51 | AAAA | Starr's Mill | 98.5% | 35-0 | 35 | Mundy's Mill | AAAA |
32.24 | A Division I Public | Bacon County | 88.6% | 34-16 | 18 | Berrien | A Division I Public |
31.80 | AA Public | Carver (Columbus) | 98.6% | 36-0 | 36 | Hardaway | AA Public |
31.17 | A Division I Public | Toombs County | 99.6% | 44-0 | 44 | Tattnall County | AA Public |
31.17 | AAA Public | Spalding | 94.8% | 35-7 | 28 | Fayette County | AAA Public |
30.87 | AAAA | Maynard Jackson | 94.7% | 34-6 | 28 | Midtown | AAAA |
30.69 | AAAAAA | Dacula | 92.9% | 31-6 | 25 | Discovery | AAAAAA |
30.26 | AAA Public | Luella | 91.3% | 28-0 | 28 | Riverdale | AAA Public |
29.41 | AAAAAA | Norcross | 99.9% | 46-0 | 46 | Meadowcreek | AAAAAA |
28.87 | A Division II | Mount Zion (Carroll) | 70.3% | 21-14 | 7 | Greenville | A Division II |
27.53 | Smaller Private | Wesleyan | 97.7% | 36-0 | 36 | Mount Pisgah Christian | Smaller Private |
27.22 | GIAA AAAA-AAA | St. Anne-Pacelli | 88.7% | 28-7 | 21 | Strong Rock Christian | GIAA AAAA-AAA |
26.20 | A Division II | Chattahoochee County | 53.4% | 21-21 | 0 | Marion County | A Division II |
25.85 | Smaller Private | Athens Academy | 99.2% | 42-0 | 42 | Oglethorpe County | A Division I Public |
25.49 | A Division I Public | Bleckley County | 94.9% | 28-0 | 28 | Jefferson County | A Division I Public |
25.46 | A Division I Public | Dade County | 87.2% | 28-12 | 16 | Armuchee | A Division I Public |
23.49 | A Division I Public | Fannin County | 99.5% | 41-0 | 41 | Gordon Central | A Division I Public |
23.29 | AA Public | Jackson | 90.8% | 28-0 | 28 | Rutland | AA Public |
22.87 | A Division II | Wilkinson County | 89.2% | 30-10 | 20 | Glascock County | A Division II |
22.19 | A Division II | Dooly County | 89.9% | 30-10 | 20 | Montgomery County | A Division II |
22.08 | AAAA | St. Pius X | 99.1% | 37-0 | 37 | North Springs | AAAA |
21.76 | Smaller Private | Christian Heritage | 94.2% | 34-7 | 27 | Coosa | A Division I Public |
21.20 | GIAA AAAA-AAA | Terrell Academy | 70.0% | 17-7 | 10 | Southland Academy | GIAA AA-A |
19.99 | GIAA AAAA-AAA | Westfield School | 93.6% | 36-14 | 22 | Pinewood Christian | GIAA AAAA-AAA |
19.27 | GIAA AAAA-AAA | First Presbyterian | 97.0% | 35-0 | 35 | Mount de Sales | GIAA AAAA-AAA |
17.94 | A Division I Public | Washington County | 96.5% | 33-0 | 33 | Central (Macon) | A Division I Public |
17.21 | A Division II | Bryan County | 92.4% | 31-7 | 24 | Claxton | A Division II |
17.18 | Smaller Private | King's Ridge Christian | 93.8% | 33-7 | 26 | St. Francis | Smaller Private |
16.83 | GIAA AA-A | Robert Toombs Academy | 83.1% | 28-14 | 14 | St. Andrew's School | GIAA AAAA-AAA |
16.21 | AA Public | Shaw | 95.9% | 32-0 | 32 | Columbus | AA Public |
15.18 | AAA Public | LaFayette | 84.6% | 24-7 | 17 | Ridgeland | AAA Public |
15.17 | GIAA AA-A | Gatewood School | 86.2% | 28-11 | 17 | Augusta Prep | GIAA AA-A |
13.37 | GIAA AA-A | Trinity Christian (Dublin) | 92.7% | 31-7 | 24 | Central Fellowship Christian | GIAA AA-A |
12.52 | GIAA AAAA-AAA | Bethlehem Christian Academy | 99.0% | 38-0 | 38 | Athens Christian | GIAA AAAA-AAA |
12.45 | GAPPS AA | Creekside Christian | 62.7% | 24-20 | 4 | Cherokee Christian | GAPPS AA |
12.06 | AAAA | Mays | 99.8% | 44-0 | 44 | Forest Park | AAAA |
10.89 | A Division II | Miller County | 97.7% | 35-0 | 35 | Terrell County | A Division II |
9.07 | GIAA AA-A | Southwest Georgia Academy | 97.5% | 41-7 | 34 | Brookwood School | GIAA AAAA-AAA |
8.39 | GIAA AAAA-AAA | George Walton Academy | 95.9% | 34-0 | 34 | Loganville Christian | GIAA AAAA-AAA |
8.30 | GIAA AA-A | Rock Springs Christian | 83.7% | 27-13 | 14 | Windsor Academy | GIAA AA-A |
7.95 | A Division II | Portal | 97.7% | 35-0 | 35 | Savannah | A Division II |
6.94 | AAA Public | Chestatee | 97.0% | 36-3 | 33 | Johnson (Gainesville) | AAA Public |
2.23 | GIAA AAAA-AAA | Brookstone | 99.7% | 38-0 | 38 | Calvary Christian | GIAA AAAA-AAA |
1.45 | GAPPS AA | Lanier Christian | 93.4% | 28-0 | 28 | Skipstone Academy | GAPPS AA |
0.01 | A Division II | Twiggs County | 86.0% | 30-14 | 16 | Georgia Military Prep | A Division II |
-0.67 | A Division II | Calhoun County | 86.7% | 27-7 | 20 | Pataula Charter | A Division II |
-1.19 | GIAA AAAA-AAA | Lakeview Academy | 99.2% | 41-0 | 41 | Riverside Prep | GIAA AAAA-AAA |
-1.49 | AA Public | Burke County | 100.0% | 53-0 | 53 | Glenn Hills | AA Public |
-2.81 | GIAA AAAA-AAA | Deerfield-Windsor | 99.2% | 40-0 | 40 | Baconton Charter | A Division II |
-4.32 | A Division I Public | B.E.S.T. Academy | 98.6% | 41-0 | 41 | Walker | Smaller Private |
-5.86 | A Division II | Crawford County | 97.8% | 38-0 | 38 | Central (Talbotton) | A Division II |
-5.94 | AA Public | Butler | 98.4% | 37-0 | 37 | Josey | AA Public |
-7.29 | GIAA AA-A | Edmund Burke Academy | 99.7% | 42-0 | 42 | Thomas Jefferson | GIAA AA-A |
-15.57 | A Division I Public | Jasper County | 99.9% | 39-0 | 39 | Utopian Academy | A Division I Public |
-21.99 | GIAA AAAA-AAA | Piedmont Academy | 99.6% | 40-0 | 40 | Heritage (Newnan) | GIAA AA-A |
-23.07 | A Division II | Atkinson County | 98.9% | 42-0 | 42 | Southwest Georgia STEM | A Division II |
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