Baseball’s greatest truth: Momentum is tomorrow’s starting pitcher. Owing to Hurricane Helene, the Braves just spent two days pondering a deeper issue: When exactly is “tomorrow”?
The Braves beat the Mets on Tuesday to draw within a game of a wild card slot. When it’s Tuesday, tomorrow is Wednesday. But the Braves and Mets didn’t play Wednesday. Nor did they play Thursday. If they meet again this season – there’s a chance they won’t, though they probably will – it won’t be until Monday.
For the Braves, first comes – weather permitting – a weekend set with the Royals, who are close to clinching a wild card themselves. Per esteemed colleague Justin Toscano, the Braves have decided to start Max Fried in Friday’s game. Beyond that, all is TBA.
Toscano informs us the Braves are saving Chris Sale, the presumptive Cy Young winner, for an elimination game. If one comes against Kansas City on Saturday/Sunday, he gets it. If the weekend passes without such a game, he’ll start Game 1 of Monday’s Helene-induced doubleheader with the Mets. (Which could, by then, be a clinch game. Permutations abound.)
If Sale starts Monday and the Braves make the playoffs, he might miss the Wild Card round. Game 1 would be Tuesday in Milwaukee or San Diego, with Game 2 on Wednesday and, if needed, Game 3 on Thursday. The latest he could work in Round 1 would be on two days’ rest. Not once this season – and only once in his 14-year MLB career – has he started on three days rest.
The Braves will resume play trailing two teams by one game. Fried is a fine pitcher who clinched the 2021 World Series with six shutout innings in Houston. That said, his ERA is 3.42, more than a full run higher than Sale’s. Here’s the thing, though: The only way the Braves won’t get to Monday is if they lose twice to K.C. and the Mets sweep the Brewers. (Or if the Braves get swept and the Mets win twice.)
How weird is this? The Braves could be two games behind the Mets as the regular season spills into an extra day and STILL qualify for the playoffs. The Braves are 6-5 vs. the Mets. A tie after the 162nd game is broken by head-to-head record. A win on Monday would clinch the tiebreaker for the Braves.
Another oddity: Arizona is tied with the Mets and leads the Braves by a game but could be in greater peril, postseason-wise. The Diamondbacks have three games remaining. The Mets and Braves have five, and each holds the tiebreaker over the Snakes.
The Royals need to win at least once, or to have the Twins lose once more, to clinch a playoff spot. (Minnesota has lost six of seven, the latest coming Thursday against last-place Miami in 13 innings.) The Mets’ and D-backs’ opponents – Milwaukee and San Diego, respectively – are already in the postseason field, all but locked into the No. 3 and 4 seeds.
Back to Sale: How bad will it be if the Braves make the playoffs but don’t have him in Round 1? Not optimal, but not necessarily dismal. The Braves might need a placeholder to start Game 1, but Fried could work Game 2 on full rest. If we assume Reynaldo Lopez – he’s about to exit the injured list – goes against K.C. on Saturday, he’d be available on full rest for Game 3.
And finally, the wildest card in this wild deck: The Braves’ fate might rest with Spencer Schwellenbach, the rookie who has, in this season’s two biggest games, beaten the Mets twice. On July 27, he went seven innings at Citi Field, yielding no runs and two hits while striking out 11. On Tuesday, he worked seven innings, yielding one run and three hits. His ERA against the Mets: 0.64. Their batting average vs. him: .104.
Schwellenbach began this season with High-A Rome. If a Game 2 is required Monday, he could be the guy who takes the ball and pitches the Braves into October.
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