Metro Atlanta home sales slow and inventory surges. Here’s why

As the weather cooled last month, so did sales of houses in metro Atlanta, according to the Georgia Multiple Listing Service.

And at the same time demand was ebbing — the way it typically does as summer ends — a surging supply of homes listed for sale was tilting the market back toward balance, said John Ryan, chief marketing officer for Georgia MLS .

Just under 4,300 homes were sold in September, he said.

The number of sales is down 6% from the same month a year ago. In contrast, listings last month were 55.8% higher than a year ago.

“It’s been a sellers’ market for so long,” said Ryan. “But there are signs that the market is moving toward a more balanced state.”

When for-sale listings represent six months or more of sales, that’s a sign that buyers and sellers on average have roughly equal bargaining power. And the market is still far shy of that: homes listed now represent 3.8 months of sales.

But that number is a lot higher than it was, and the closer it gets to six, the more negotiating leverage buyers will have. At several points in the past few years, the listings number — inventory — has fallen below one month of sales.

When that happened, buyers often found themselves bidding against each other for the same homes and sellers often ended up getting paid more than their asking price.

“We may not get back to a six-month supply anytime soon, but we have seen a nice steady rise of inventory,” Ryan said. “There’s opportunity for negotiations over those houses. And that is positive, especially for first-time buyers.”

Georgia’s housing market — like its broader economy — has been fueled by in-migration from other places both within the United States and from overseas, said Alan McKnight , Atlanta-based chief investment officer of Regions Bank.

That has added to demand for housing.

“Home prices have gone up at a higher rate than the national average,” he said . “It’s not quite so beneficial if you are a buyer.”

But those increases have been decelerating.

Through 2021 and 2022, the median sales price was jumping at a double-digit per year rate, cresting at increases of more than 20%. But then the Federal Reserve began its inflation-fighting campaign, dramatically lifting its benchmark rate, a change that rippled through the economy to make mortgage rates much higher.

By making it much more costly to borrow money, the Fed drained buyers’ purchasing power.

That chilled the ardor of buyers, but also of potential sellers who didn’t want to trade a low mortgage rate for a high one in their next purchase.

The median sales price of a home sold in metro Atlanta last month was $405,000, up just 2.5% from a year earlier, according to the Georgia MLS .

But now, the Fed has started lowering its benchmark rate and mortgages too are slipping. In October 2023, the average 30-year, fixed mortgage was nearly 8%. By the first week of this month, the average had fallen to 6.12%, according to the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp ., which buys loans in the secondary market.

That has helped convince some owners to put their homes on the market.

“As the rates have dipped down, there are more people ready to list,” said Leonard King, an associate and sales agent with Re/Max . “Now they are thinking they can sell that house and purchase another home.”

The most action in the market has been for homes priced between $350,000 and $500,000, he said. “Mostly first-time buyers.”

Metro Atlanta housing market, September

Homes sold: 4,272

Median sales price: $405,000

Sales compared to a year ago: down 6.2%

Median price compared to a year ago: up 2.5%

Homes listed compared to a year ago: up 55.8%

Data for 12 counties centered on Atlanta

Source: Georgia Multiple Listing Service

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