Florida is no stranger to hurricanes, but Milton could be historic

As Hurricane Milton hurtled toward Florida late Wednesday, experts warned the storm could be one of the most damaging cyclones to ever strike the Sunshine State. Those who evacuated to states like Georgia, meanwhile, wondered what they’d have left to return to.

After flirting with record-intensity earlier in the week when its winds increased from tropical storm strength (39 mph) to an astounding 180 mph in just 48 hours , wind shear was sapping some of Milton’s strength as it approached land. Late Wednesday afternoon, Milton was spinning 150 miles southwest of Tampa Bay as it moved toward the northeast as a Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 120 mph.

Still, the National Hurricane Center warned Milton was expected to make landfall late Wednesday or early Thursday as a powerful hurricane capable of inflicting historic damage on Florida’s west coast, where evacuations had been ordered in many counties.

“Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida,” NHC forecasters wrote in a Wednesday brief on the storm.

On Wednesday, a slight wobble shifted the storm’s track farther south, which meant the Tampa Bay-St. Petersburg metro area and its 3 million residents were less likely to take a direct hit from the storm. Tampa suffered major flooding when Hurricane Helene swept by just two weeks ago , but the eye of a major hurricane hasn’t passed over the region in more than a century.

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While more changes were possible, most models Wednesday were projecting the storm would make landfall somewhere between Sarasota and Cape Coral, where a catastrophic storm surge measuring 9 to 13 feet was expected to swamp the shoreline. Parts of Tampa could still face between 8 to 12 feet of surge, NHC forecasts showed, along with Milton’s powerful winds and heavy rains.

After crossing the Florida Peninsula, where rainfall totals of 8 to 16 inches were expected to trigger dangerous inland flooding, Milton is set to push east over the Atlantic Ocean.

Milton’s shift south means deep south and coastal Georgia is less likely to see significant rain and wind from the storm.

Before the storm’s arrival, Gov. Brian Kemp declared a state of emergency for more than three dozen Georgia counties. At a press conference Wednesday at the operations center for the Chatham Emergency Management Agency, Kemp said he didn’t think Georgia would take a hard hit from Milton.

“We want to over-prepare and hope this storm, at least for us here in Georgia, will underperform,” Kemp said.

Kemp also said he’s been in touch with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and have offered assistance if his state needs it.

Before Milton leaves the Southeast, the counter-clockwise motion of it’s winds could still whip water back toward the Georgia coast, where 2 to 4 feet of storm surge is expected.

That’s not likely to cause widespread flooding, but the incursion of water — combined with already saturated soils and full rivers — could overwhelm stormwater systems and inundate some low-lying areas, said Jessica T.R. Brown, a stormwater specialist with the University of Georgia’s Marine Extension and Georgia Sea Grant.

“The saturated conditions from last week increases the time it will take for storm surge infiltration to go away, and it may increase the footprint of localized flooding through the end of the week,” Brown said, adding that drivers should not try to drive through flooded roads.

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In Savannah, minor flooding is expected Thursday and potentially on Friday from Milton.

West Savannah neighborhoods around the Enmarket Arena, the city’s indoor sports and entertainment venue, are particularly flood prone during high tide. On Wednesday, the city was distributing sand and bags to residents nearby concerned about flooding.

Savannah Mayor Van Johnson expressed concerns about Milton’s winds, particularly coming so soon after Helene. Wind gusts topped out at 76 mph during Helene and dropped many trees. Johnson warned residents to be aware of weakened trees.

”We just did this and now we’re back at it again,” he said.

At the beach on Tybee Island, officials have already closed the shore to swimmers after lifeguards spotted a 300-yard rip current on Wednesday morning. Waves along the island’s South Beach could top 5 feet, welcome news to local surfers but not to Mayor Brian West, who warned of significant beach erosion.

Marshall Shepherd, the director of the University of Georgia’s Atmospheric Sciences Program and a meteorologist, said it’s time to acknowledge the role climate change is playing in making storms like Milton more destructive.

He pointed to Milton’s rapid intensification over the record or near-record hot waters that have been present in the Gulf of Mexico for months. Only two storms on record — 2005′s Hurricane Wilma and 2007′s Hurricane Felix — have gained strength faster, according to the NHC , and research has linked rising ocean temperatures to the rapid intensification of storms.

“These types of things signal a new era of hurricanes,” Shepherd said. “I’m very comfortable saying that.”

Though some evacuees faced heavy traffic and gas shortages as they tried to flee to safety, the northern half of Georgia was busy Wednesday welcoming Floridians who decided to get out of the storm’s path.

Atlanta Motor Speedway, which opened its campgrounds for free to evacuees Monday, was hosting about 15 RVs as of Wednesday morning, with more expected to arrive, spokesperson Tyler Head said.

”We have plenty spots available for anyone who needs it,” Head said.

CJ Gagne and his family evacuated from Naples, Florida, and were among those who found shelter at the speedway.

On the family’s trip north in their RV, in which they live full-time, they faced traffic and gas shortages and relied on their spare gas cans to get through, Gagne said. By chance, they said they received a text message about the speedway opening up and set up camp. The family has never evacuated before, but the forecast for Milton was too intense for them to ignore, they said.

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”We just felt with the high wind speeds and the devastation that was gonna, probably, take place, that it was too much for our RV,” Gagne said. “Gotta protect the house as much as the family in it.”

Air travelers, meanwhile, were dealing with disruption from the storm.

Tampa International Airport closed Tuesday, followed by closures of airports in Sarasota/Bradenton and St. Petersburg and the suspension of airline flights to and from Orlando International.

On Wednesday, more than 1,700 flights were canceled, according to FlightAware.com .

Wednesday’s cancellations included more than 120 flights canceled at Hartsfield-Jackson, including flights to or from Orlando , Tampa, Sarasota/Bradenton and Fort Myers.

With evacuees rushing to leave Florida, President Joe Biden warned airlines against price gouging and Atlanta-based Delta Air Lines said it would cap some fares.

Delta said it started to cap fares on Sunday for passengers looking to avoid Milton. The company added that its fares for 12 cities in Florida were “capped in a range based on distance flown” and that it was adding flight capacity where possible.

- Reporters Ashley Ahn, Adam Van Brimmer, John Spink, Joe Kovac Jr. and Kelly Yamanouchi contributed to this report.

This coverage is supported by a partnership with Green South Foundation and Journalism Funding Partners. You can learn more and support our climate reporting by donating at ajc.com/donate/climate .

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