Each year as the summer winds down and the morning air starts to get crisp, New Jersey residents begin to ask the age-old question: I wonder what winter will look like this year? Depending on preferences, it often leads to either excitement for snow or a wish for none.
Well, snow bunnies , you might not be pulling out those insulated boots and hand warmers as often as you'd like because if the Old Farmer's Almanac, which dates to 1792, is your go-to source for weather predictions, New Jersey may be in for a mild winter season , according to the periodical's latest predictions.
And as a reminder, fellow prognosticating publication, the Farmers' Almanac, released its own winter forecast earlier this month , calling for a "wet winter whirlwind" as the climate pattern known as La Niña likely emerges between September and November . That Almanac, which dates to 1818, says that the shift in weather pattern this fall could bring milder temperatures across the Garden State. Both Almanacs also split New Jersey in two parts, with the northwestern portion, mainly Sussex County, potentially seeing more snow, which areas to the south and east predicting more rain.
When does winter start?
Depending on what definition you follow, winter is about 14 weeks or 16 weeks away.
From an astronomical standpoint, winter solstice in the Northern Hemisphere is Dec. 21 at precisely 4:21 a.m. EST, the exact time when the Northern Hemisphere is tilted as far away from the sun as possible , according to the Old Farmer's Almanac. The word solstice comes from the Latin sol , which means sun, and sistere , which means to stand still. Loosely translated, it means "sun stands still," according to the Almanac. Oddly enough, the sun's path across the sky appears to stay still for a few days before and after the solstice.
The "longest" day each year often around June 20 and 21 and the "shortest" day around Dec. 21 or 22. Winter then ends at the spring equinox, which will be March 20, 2025 at 5:01 a.m. EST .
If you consider meteorological winter, then the season starts on Dec. 1 and ends the last day of February.
Fun fact: On the day of the winter solstice, stand outside at noon and look at your shadow. It's the longest shadow that you'll cast all year. As is expected, on the summer solstice, you'll almost see no shadow.
How cold will it be in Northeast this winter?
When speaking of weather predictions, the Old Farmer's Almanac split the nation into over a dozen regions, including the Northeast, which covers a northwest square of New Jersey that includes Sussex County and a small portion of Warren County, as well as Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, the interior of Massachusetts and New York, and the upper northwest portion of Connecticut.
"Winter is always snowy" for this region, the Almanac states, "but we're predicting a gentler-than-normal season that is not so rough and tough."
Temperatures in the Northeast will be above average overall, with January the likeliest month to feel temperatures 4 degrees above average, the Almanac predicts. The coldest periods are predicted for mid-December and late February.
How cold will it be in Atlantic Corridor this winter?
Looking at the Atlantic Corridor, which the Old Farmer's Almanac designates as land along the East Coast that covers seven states starting at the north in Boston and down to New York City, the remaining larger portion of New Jersey, and down to Washington, D.C. and Richmond, Virginia.
How cold will it be across that region? "Not bad," says the Old Farmer's Almanac, which notes temperatures will be slightly above average during winter. However, February is on average expected to be about 2 percent colder than usual, the Almanac predicts.
Expect a few "shots of cold" in mid-December, early and late January and late February, the Almanac predicts.
Will Northeast and Atlantic Corridor see snow or rain this winter?
If you're among those that love snow, you might be in luck if you live closer to the interior and perhaps maybe even Sussex County. But don't expect any more than usual, according to the Almanac.
"Yes, there will be plenty of snow," the Almanac predicts, "however, precipitation and snowfall will be slightly below normal."
Snowfall will be about 1 to 1.5 percent below average, the periodical predicts, with the snowiest periods in early December, mid-February and early March.
In the Atlantic Corridor, snowfall will be below normal in the northern region, with above normal snowfall in the southern region. The Almanac did not specify which areas are considered north and south.
In the corridor region, the most snow is predicted in late December and late February, according to the periodical's prognosticators.
What are the average winter temperatures in North Jersey?
Here are the average monthly temperatures for the winter season in the North Division, which encompasses Hunterdon, Somerset and Union counties and all counties above, with data collected for 128 years, or between 1895 and 2023 by the Office of the State Climatologist at Rutgers University:
- December: 31.1 degrees
- January: 27.1 degrees
- February: 28.4 degrees
- March: 37.3 degrees
How much snow did North Jersey get last year?
Total snowfall amounts during the 2023-2024 winter season in North Jersey ranged from nearly 36 inches in northern Sussex County with about a foot in total in areas across Bergen, Hudson, Essex and Union counties, according to data from the Office of the State Climatologist .
Most areas of Sussex County last winter season measured between 25 and 33 inches, with higher elevations receiving higher amounts of snow. In Passaic and Morris counties, snowfall amounts ranged between 18 to 25 inches, with areas further east seeing about a foot or slightly more over the winter season.
How does the Old Farmer's Almanac make its predictions?
The oldest continuously published periodical in North America — founded when George Washington was president — boasts an 80% accuracy on their weather reports overall.
The periodical says it uses a unique method of predicting weather through three disciplines, leaning heavily on solar activity and patterns, meteorology and atmospheric science as well as historic trends and temperature averages.
While experts have criticized the Almanac's predictions over the years — a study at the University of Illinois concluded they were accurate only about 52% of the time — and experts urge readers to take the forecasts with a massive grain of salt, the periodical has its supporters. The book's 2025 edition, which is now in its 233rd year, is available on Aug. 27 , with orders being taken now.
Email: lcomstock@njherald.com ; Twitter: @LoriComstockNJH or on Facebook .
This article originally appeared on NorthJersey.com: Will it be a snowy winter in New Jersey? Old Farmer's Almanac gives its predictions
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