Here are our 5 best NFL Week 9 picks against the spread, plus one total to wager on

With the calendar just a few short days away from flipping to November, the NFL season is nearing the halfway point of 2024.

Contenders and pretenders are in the process of being established with a path to the playoffs in the likely future, or teams postseason hopes on life support.

The Lions (6-1) continued to prove why they're the best in the NFC, if not the top team in the NFL with a 52-14 thrashing of the Titans, where Detroit scored 38 unanswered points after being tied with Tennessee early in the second quarter.

On the flip side you have the Jets (2-6), who dropped their fifth straight game in a 25-22 unacceptable loss to a clearly inferior Patriots (2-6) team with backup QB Jacoby Brissett playing a majority of the game with starting QB Drake Maye out with a concussion.

With eight weeks nearly in the books, underdogs continue to reign supreme. Teams that are +250 or higher on the moneyline are not only covering at a high rate, but winning outright with a 78 percent return on investment in 2024.

That trend continued in Week 8, with the Patriots (+260) and Browns (+280) pulling off massive upsets as seven-point home underdogs.

Prior to a week off of picks this past weekend, it was a positive one in Week 7, going 4-2 in my six bets.

Here's my current record ATS for this season and how I fared in 2023:

2024 record: 17-24

Against the spread (ATS): 14-20

Bonus Bets: 3-4

2023 ATS record (regular season and playoffs): 64-56-2

Here are my five best bets against the spread and one total to wager on in Week 9 ( Odds via BetMGM as of Monday, Oct. 28 ):

Houston Texans (+1) vs. New York Jets

We start with the game that gets Week 9 underway with the Jets hosting the Texans on Thursday night at MetLife Stadium.

Let's be candid here. Until proven otherwise, the Jets should not be favored regardless of the opponent moving forward and shouldn't have been a seven-point favorite this past weekend with their recent track record.

Now, QB Aaron Rodgers -- who looks every bit of a 40 years old under center -- gets to face a Texans defense that's limited Colts' QB Anthony Richardson (10-of-32) and Bills' QB Josh Allen (9-of-30) -- the current betting favorite to win NFL MVP -- under 32 percent completion percentage in the last month.

Yes, Houston is short-handed on offense with No. 1 wide receiver Nico Collins still on injured reserve and Stefon Diggs likely out for this game after suffering a non-contact knee injury against the Colts in Week 8.

Without Collins, the Texans bread and butter has been running the ball with Joe Mixon, who has 503 rushing yards in only five games played.

Facing a Jets defense that has had trouble stopping the run at times this year, I expect Houston to ground and pound with Mixon and cover in this spot as a short underdog, leaving Jets' fans with all tricks and no treats this Halloween night.

In the dumps: Instant analysis: NY Jets hit rock bottom in New England, falling to lowly Patriots, 25-22

Washington Commanders (-3.5) vs. New York Giants

Three days later, it'll be the Giants turn at MetLife with a divisional matchup against a red-hot Commanders team that leads the NFC East with a 6-2 record.

We have yet to know how the G-Men will perform given their Monday night matchup upcoming against the Steelers. But, on the road against a superior team, it's not hard to see Big Blue struggling in Pittsburgh.

Before the Giants head to Germany in Week 10, they have to face QB Jayden Daniels -- the heavy favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year -- a second time, who's coming off of a 18-15 Hail Mary victory over the Chicago Bears in Week 8.

Now, Washington came out on top in the first meeting 21-18 despite not getting in the end zone back in Week 2 thanks to place kicker Austin Seibert making all seven field goal attempts.

Since then, Daniels and the offense have only gotten better, scoring 34+ points in four of their next five wins.

Now, there's an argument that can be made that the Commanders haven't had to play as quality defense in those wins. However, the Commanders are still 6-1-1 against the spread (ATS) and the only time they didn't cover was in Week 1 at the Buccaneers.

This head-to-head has been close in recent years (eight of last 10 meetings decided by one score), and I wouldn't be surprised if that's the case on Sunday afternoon.

With that being said, I'm still on the Commanders' side here as Daniels and Co. will do enough offensively to win this one by at least four points in MetLife.

Denver Broncos (+9) vs. Baltimore Ravens

One of the more surprising results of Week 9 was the Ravens, who were seven-point road favorites against the Browns but lost 29-24 in Cleveland.

Now, the Ravens head back to M&T Bank Stadium to host another 5-3 team in the Broncos.

Despite trailing 7-0 early against the Panthers at home, Denver bounced right back, scoring 28 consecutive points to easily take care of Carolina with ease.

It should be noted that the Broncos are going cross country for the second time in two weeks. While they dominated a clearly shorthanded Saints team 33-10 in Week 7, they'll have a much taller task against the Ravens and QB Lamar Jackson, who is in contention to become the second QB in five years to win back-to-back NFL MVPs (Aaron Rodgers, 2020-2021) and his third in the last six years.

The good news is the Broncos QB Bo Nix will face a Baltimore defense that has allowed opponents to throw all over them this season. Despite their winning record, the Ravens have allowed a league-high 291.4 passing yards per game, 20 more yards per contest than the next closest team (Jaguars: 271.1 YPG).

Nix, the 12th overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft, has shown consistent improvement since throwing four interceptions over his first two weeks. Since Week 3, Nix has 11 total touchdowns (eight passing, three rushing) and has only one interception over his last six games.

Do I anticipate the Ravens bouncing back and getting in the win column here? Absolutely. But I think this number is way too high and will be bet down in the coming days leading to kickoff as the Broncos cover the near double digit spread.

Philadelphia Eagles (-7) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

One of the storylines to watch for in Week 9 will be when Jaguars' head coach Doug Pederson heads back to Philadelphia, this time on the opposing sideline.

In 2016, Pederson started his head coaching career in the City of Brotherly Love, posting a 42-37-1 record in five seasons. What the 56-year-old coach will be most known for is bringing the Eagles their first and only Super Bowl in franchise history, defeating Tom Brady and the Patriots 41-33 in Super Bowl LII in his second year.

Since being let go at the end of the 2020, Pederson is now in his third season in Jacksonville. After going 9-8 in his first two years, it's been a rough go of it for Pederson, who's on the hot seat with the Jags losing six of their first eight games.

As mentioned above, Jacksonville has a real hard time stopping the pass, leading to them surrendering 28 points per game in 2024, tied with the Titans for third-most in the NFL. Now they face an Eagles franchise that has seemingly gotten it together the past two weeks, outscoring their opponents 65-20 in their last two games.

Furthermore, they'll be without their two top wide receivers with Christian Kirk suffering a broken collarbone out for the year and Brian Thomas Jr. potentially sidelined for multiple weeks with a chest/rib injury.

I expect this one to get and ugly and fast for the Jaguars as the Eagles show no mercy to their former head coach, who could be out of a job with another unsatisfactory performance.

Minnesota Vikings (-7) vs. Indianapolis Colts

The Sunday slate concludes in the Twin Cities with the Vikings hosting the Colts in primetime.

Week 8 was a letdown for Minnesota, losing only its second game of the year in a 30-20 loss in Los Angeles against the Rams.

Now, the Vikings will be back home on extra rest and looking to avoid a three-game streak.

Fortunately for Minnesota, there's very few matchups better than the Colts right now.

Indianapolis has struggled all season long on defense, ranking near the bottom half of the league in both passing and rushing yards allowed per game.

Since their Week 6 bye, the Vikings have allowed 30+ points in two straight weeks. That should come to an end here against a Colts offense with QB Anthony Richardson, who's completed a league-low 44.4 percent of his passes, including the aforementioned game against Houston where the former No. 4 overall pick had 22 of his 32 passes be incomplete.

Being a favorite of at least a touchdown has been an unwise proposition, but I see Minnesota having few issues here, as defensive coordinator Brian Flores dials up a masterful game plan against Richardson with the Vikings getting back on track and winning this one by double digits.

Bonus Bet: Cleveland Browns vs. Los Angeles Chargers UNDER 42 points (-110)

In the NFL, there's no QB that's more profitable to the total staying under the projected number than Chargers' Justin Herbert.

With there only being 34 total points in Sunday's Chargers-Saints game that closed with a total of 41, the under is now 16-4 in Herbert's last 20 starts.

In Week 9 against the Browns, I expect similar results with the over/under currently sitting at 42 points.

In 2024, the Chargers and Browns have been two of the best at participating in low scoring affairs, with these two AFC franchises combining to stay below this total in 12 of 15 games so far.

This in large part to the Chargers conceding a league-low 13 points per game (best in the NFL) and the Browns coming in at 23.3 PPG, ranking in the middle of the pack.

With both teams averaging less than 19 points per game on offense through eight weeks, I'm betting that this trend continues in Week 9 with the Browns and Chargers scoring fewer than 42 points in Cleveland, especially with their being a 40 percent chance of rain throughout the game.

BetMGM is the premier destination for sportsbook odds throughout the year.

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This article originally appeared on NorthJersey.com: Here are our 5 best NFL Week 9 picks against the spread, plus one total to wager on