Week 7 game day preview: Toledo football at Buffalo

AMHERST, N.Y. — If you listened to Pete Lembo’s news conference this week, there’s no reason for Buffalo to show up.

The former Ball State head coach, now in his first season at Buffalo, praised the Rockets, all but saying they could beat Ohio State, Texas, and Georgia.

The accolades had some truth, but most of it was coachspeak to rile up his own team. A team, by the way, that knocked off September darling Northern Illinois.

“I’ve been doing this a long time,” Lembo said. “For teams to be championship contenders, they’ve got to be able to play complementary football and they’ve got to be good in all three phases. And that’s exactly what this Toledo team is.”

BASICS

■ Who: Toledo (4-1, 1-0) at Buffalo (3-2, 1-0)

■ When: 12 p.m. Saturday

■ Where: UB Stadium

■ Spread: Toledo by 9½

■ TV: ESPNU

■ Radio: 1370 AM; 1230 AM

■ Follow: Kyle Rowland

PLAYERS TO WATCH

■ Toledo: Braden Awls. The sophomore from Central Catholic has made an instant impact for the Rockets, ranking third nationally with three interceptions. He’s third on the team with 28 total tackles and three pass breakups.

■ Buffalo: Shaun Dolac. The senior linebacker is one of the top defensive players in college football. He leads the nation with 72 tackles, ranks third with 10.5 tackles for loss, and he has an additional two interceptions.

STATS TO KNOW

■ 2: Toledo has only won twice at Buffalo — in 2012 and 1970. The 2012 win was still in the first term of the Barack Obama Administration.

■ 2-3: Lembo was 2-3 against Toledo as Ball State's head coach.

MATCHUP TO WATCH

Toledo offensive line vs. Buffalo front seven: This matchup won’t decide who wins the game, but if Toledo can’t create space against Buffalo's rush defense, which ranks 86th nationally, the Rockets might not find a consistent run game all season.

PREDICTION

Playing on the road, especially after a long, uncomfortable bus trip, is never easy. But this would be a horrible loss for Toledo. The Rockets are the better team, by far, and they’re relatively healthy. Any deviation from the defensive line’s dominance would be surprising, making Buffalo’s odds long. The Bulls have some good defensive players, but Tucker Gleason can make it easy on himself by not forcing any throws and holding onto the football. Toledo 34, Buffalo 15.

WARMUP READING

Alexander, punishing Toledo defensive line spell doom for opponents

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Week 7 scouting report: Toledo football at Buffalo

Toledo placekicker Dylan Cunanan makes history with big leg

Toledo football coach Jason Candle extended through 2028 season

Video: Breaking down Toledo coach Candle's contract extension

Toledo PFF grades: Gleason is nation's top QB, for at least one day