Week 8 scouting report: Toledo football at Northern Illinois

A road trip to Northern Illinois is the last place a football team wants to travel after a road trip to Buffalo.

Especially if it's following a loss.

But that's what's next on Toledo's slate. A 6-2 team might slip into Detroit for the Mid-American Conference championship game considering the chaos that's already unfolded in the first two full weeks of conference games.

Not that Jason Candle is even giving it a thought.

"I don't care about the MAC title game. I really don't right now," Candle said. "That is not a worry of mine. My worry is, how do we get this football team to play the best it can possibly play on Saturday? Then after that, there's somebody else waiting for us that provides another set of challenges."

When Toledo has the ball

Due to a poor offensive line, the Rockets have become a one-dimensional offense. They rank 31st nationally in passing offense (271.5 passing yards per game) and 112th in rushing (111.3 yards).

Starting quarterback Tucker Gleason has been solid, completing 61.6 percent of his passes with 13 touchdowns and four interceptions. But his health is in question after suffering an injury at Buffalo. In his place, backup John Alan Richter was 16-of-23 passing for 227 yards with two TDs and zero interceptions.

Jerjuan Newton will be their No. 1 target no matter who's behind center. The senior wide receiver is fourth nationally with seven TD receptions. Tight end Anthony Torres has five touchdowns and WR Junior Vandeross III has three.

Toledo will face the nation's fifth-best total defense, as the Huskies allow only 253.7 yards per game. The only teams doing better are Texas, Tennessee, Ohio State, and Kentucky.

NIU does struggle against the pass, however, giving up 181.3 yards through the air, ranking 111th in the country. Opponents have thrown eight touchdowns and four interceptions.

The Huskies are No. 18 in rushing defense (96.3 yards) and 20th in scoring defense (17.2 points). They have three players who rank in the top 60 in sacks — defensive end Nevaeh Sanders (4.5), defensive end Roy Williams (4.5), and defensive tackle Devontae O'Malley (3.5).

When Northern Illinois has the ball

NIU is also dealing with an injured QB after starter Ethan Hampton was injured at Bowling Green last week. He has completed less than 60 percent of his passes for just shy of 1,000 yards with eight touchdowns and four interceptions.

Josh Holst was 10 of 14 for 89 yards against the Falcons.

Running back Antario Brown runs the NIU offense — no pun intended. He's the second-leading rusher (401 yards, two TDs) and the leading receiver (204 yards, one TD). But he was injured against UMass on Oct. 5 and didn't play at BGSU.

The Huskies still have Gavin Williams to run the ball. He's the nation's 63rd-leading rusher with 409 yards. He's had back-to-back 100-yard performances.

Toledo ranks 58th in total defense (344.5 yards), 92nd in passing defense (234.0 yards), 33rd in rushing defense (110.5 yards), and 44th in scoring defense (21.0 points).

Cornerback Avery Smith ranks fourth with eight pass breakups. Sophomore safety Braden Awls is sixth with three interceptions.

Senior safety Maxen Hook is No. 35 with 50 tackles. Fellow safety Emmanuel McNeil-Warren is 70th with 46 tackles.

Special teams

Toledo's Jacquez Stuart would rank in the top five in kickoff returns, but he's no longer eligible because teams have been kicking it out of the end zone. Stuart was absent last week with an injury.

Punt returner Bryson Hammer is fifth, averaging more than 18 yards per return. His 200 punt return yards rank first, as do his 33.3 return yards per game.

Northern Illinois ranks 16th in punt coverage, allowing just three yards per return. The Huskies allow less than 20 yards per kickoff return. The Huskies are one of the worst teams in the country in punting (38.6 yards), and they've missed four of 13 field goals.

Toledo will win if…

It would be wise for the Rockets to establish a run game, but they don't need it to win. Whoever plays QB needs to complete passes and UT needs a solid special teams game. It's never easy at NIU, especially when the Huskies are good.

Northern Illinois will win if…

Does a path to victory exist if Toledo can't throw the ball? Maybe they get a couple of turnovers, but it will be extremely difficult. NIU's clearest path is to get pressure on the QB and step up in the secondary.

View from the other side

Edward Carifio, sports editor for the DeKalb Daily Chronicle: Getting a gauge on exactly what NIU will look like offensively is tough this week. Antario Brown and Trayvon Rudolph were out from the start last week and Ethan Hampton and Evan Buss left with injuries. Redshirt freshman QB Josh Holst led the Huskies to the comeback win at Bowling Green, 17-7. But the defense is in the top 20 nationally in a ton of categories and leads the MAC in a bunch, as well. Northern Illinois 17, Toledo 16.