The best chances for lake-effect snow this winter are sooner rather than later.
In its annual winter outlook released to journalists nationally in a livestream webinar on Thursday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said it generally expects a warmer and drier South and a wetter North this winter.
The scientist who did most of the talking, Jon Gottschalck, responded to a series of questions from The Blade, though, by saying the take-home message for the Great Lakes region is the likelihood of more lake-effect snow this November and December, because of how warm the lakes are now.
Mr. Gottschalck is operational prediction branch chief for NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, which did the forecast.
This initial forecast goes from early November through the end of February.
“With the lakes being warm and open, lake-effect snow could be an issue this year. There could be an outburst in the early part of the winter,” he said.
That, of course, is going to depend on how much Canadian air comes down into the region during the next two months, drawing heat and moisture from the lakes into the lower atmosphere and forming clouds that produce snow.
This winter is different from last winter in that there is no longer a strong El Nino weather system hovering over the Pacific Ocean, making temperatures warmer than normal across North America.
But the NOAA forecasters said there’s a 60 percent chance that a weak La Nina event will develop this autumn and could last until March. That could result in more weather abnormalities, but it’s too early to tell. It’s a slowly developing system that could bring surprises, they said.
In general, warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected across the eastern half of the continental United States, especially in the South but also as far north as Maine. The entire state of Ohio and the eastern half of Michigan’s Lower Peninsula are in the above-normal temperature band that appears on the Seasonal Temperature Outlook map issued by NOAA.
The agency also released maps for precipitation and drought.
Most of Ohio and all of Michigan are expected to get above-average precipitation.
NOAA does not attempt to predict how much of that precipitation will be rain instead of snow.
“Wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in the Great Lakes states, and above-average precipitation is also favored in northern and western Alaska, the Pacific Northwest and across the northern tier of the U.S.,” NOAA said in its news release. “These probabilities are strongest in portions of Ohio, Indiana and Kentucky.”
As for drought, the latest U.S. Drought Monitor Map issued Thursday shows all of northwest Ohio in a moderate or severe drought, with most of Fulton and a fraction of Lucas, Williams, Henry, and Defiance counties in an extreme drought.
Drought conditions are expected to continue through at least Jan. 31, according to NOAA’s drought outlook, but improving throughout much of northwest Ohio.
By far the worst part of Ohio for drought is the state’s southeast quadrant. Drought is expected to persist and worsen across the central and southern Plains regions of the country, NOAA said.
More than a quarter of the continental United States is in at least a moderate drought, Brad Pugh, NOAA operational drought leader, said.
“And the winter precipitation outlook does not bode well for widespread relief,” Mr. Pugh said.
The uncertainty of what the La Nina will do is causing “more variability” in predictions after New Year’s Day, NOAA said.
Last winter’s lack of snow impacted this summer’s Great Lakes water levels, Mr. Gottschalck said.
The Great Lakes region “had a very strong snow drought,” he said.
“Precipitation might have been average, but was way below for snow. That affected the recharge of rivers,” Mr. Gottschalck said.
Tom Di Liberto, a NOAA climate scientist, said the generally warmer trends of recent years show no sign of letting up.
Michael Morgan, NOAA assistant secretary of commerce for environmental observation and prediction, said NOAA’s early season forecast for upcoming winters each year is “one of the most viewed and used outlooks NOAA produces.”
Mr. Morgan said $100 million has been invested into NOAA’s high-performance computer modeling in hopes of generating more accurate predictions about weather, climate, and changing ocean conditions.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updates its three-month outlook each month.
The next update will be available Nov. 21.
In response to the general trend of warmer winters and less snow in historically snowy areas, the U.S. Senate is considering a bill that would provide disaster relief to small businesses harmed by milder winters and less snow.
The legislation was announced Thursday by U.S. Sen. Gary Peters (D., Mich.), who said his co-sponsors include U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D., Wis.), U.S. Sen. Tina Smith (D., Minn.), and U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D., Minn.).
Known as the Winter Recreation Small Business Recovery Act, the legislation would ensure small businesses that rely on strong winters would be eligible for disaster relief through the Small Business Administration’s economic injury disaster loan program.
Last winter, the U.S. Department of Agriculture declared 42 Michigan counties as drought disaster areas. Michigan ski hills lost an estimated $41 million, and 3,400 employees that operate them were laid off because it was an unseasonably warm winter, according to the news release issued by Mr. Peters’ office.
Michigan’s winter recreation industry is driven by snowmobiling, cross-country skiing, snowshoeing, ice fishing, snowboarding, and sleigh rides, too, the release states.
“With visitors traveling from around the world to experience the benefits of Michigan winters, snowfall is a critical component of our state’s economy, particularly for communities Up North,” Mr. Peters said in a prepared statement.
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