NOAA's 2024-25 winter forecast is here. Maps show what to expect in Vermont

Expect a milder winter in Vermont this year, according to a federal weather report.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s winter forecast says there is a near 50/50 chance that Vermont is leaning toward being warmer than it usually is in the months of December, January and February.

Vermont's average winter temperature was 27.2 degrees Fahrenheit in 2023, according to the National Center for Environment Information, 9.9 degrees off the 1901-2000 average.

La Niña is predicted to drive the weather pattern this winter.

The forecasters' discussion said that there is a 71% chance that La Niña could emerge from September to November, with said likelihood continuing into January through March of 2025.

What's the NOAA forecast for Vermont this fall?

A NOAA forecast also found that Vermont, as well as the rest of New England, is leaning toward having above normal levels of rain for the remainder of this fall, with a 33% to 40% likelihood in October, November and December.

The forecast says that there is a 40% to 50% chance that most of Vermont is leaning above average temperatures this fall.

What is La Niña?

La Niña, which means "little girl" in Spanish, is a weather pattern that can impact winter temperatures, according to NOAA.

"During La Niña events, trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia," NOAA stated. "Off the west coast of the Americas, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface…These cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward."

Because cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward during La Niña, more droughts can occur in the southern U.S. with heavy rains and flooding occurring at the same time in the Pacific Northwest and Canada.

"Winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the south and cooler than normal in the north" part of the U.S. when La Nina is active, NOAA stated.

Rin Velasco is a trending reporter. She can be reached at rvelasco@gannett.com. Seth Jacobson contributed to this report.

This article originally appeared on Burlington Free Press: NOAA's 2024-25 winter forecast is here. Maps show what to expect in Vermont