Poll: Stein increases lead on Robinson

(The Center Square) – Democrat Josh Stein continues to edge ahead of Republican Mark Robinson, according to a new poll on the race for North Carolina governor.

Expected to be among the nation’s most expensive of the 11 nationwide on 2024 ballots, the campaigning has been hard-hitting from both sides. It’s also been close since the outset in a state with a more than distinctive pattern of electing Democrats.

Conducted July 31 through Saturday, the 714 likely voters sampled put Stein ahead of Robinson 43%-38%. The “don’t know” choice decreased from 23% to 16% compared to polling July 22-24. Libertarian Mike Ross and the Green Party’s Wayne Turner were each at 1%.

The poll was conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies , sponsored by The Telegraph. It has made 10 regular tabulations.

For context, the boost is only by a point and with a relatively small sampling of likely rather than registered voters. North Carolina, one of seven battleground states, is less than 18,000 from 7.6 million registered voters .

The same pollster from July 22-24 sampled 586 likely voters and had Stein ahead 38%-34%. In a July 16-18 polling of 461 likely voters, Stein led 37%-36%.

Time is fleeting. Absentee-by-mail ballots are 29 days away from going out, early in-person voting is 70 days away, and Election Day is 89 days away.

Gov. Roy Cooper is finishing his second consecutive term, the limit by state law, capping 13 consecutive winning elections dating to November 1984. Since Daniel Lindsay Scott Russell's 1897-2001 tenure , the governor's office has had a Democrat every year sans Oliver Max Gardner (1929-33) of the Baptist Party, and Republicans James Holshouser (1973-77), Jim Martin (1985-93) and Pat McCrory (2013-16).

History is tied to each campaign. Stein, the two-term attorney general, is seeking to be the state’s first governor of Jewish faith. Robinson made history four years ago as the first Black elected lieutenant governor and would achieve the same for the governor’s office.

As it does consistently, the pollster asked respondents what would be “most important in determining how you vote” on Nov. 5. The economy (38%) easily outdistanced abortion (15%), immigration (9%) and health care (7%).

The environment was next (4%) just behind don’t know (5%). Clustered at just more than 2% or less were, respectively, coronavirus pandemic, housing, government spending, foreign policy and defense, election integrity and voter fraud, welfare, policing and crime, homelessness, education, taxation, transportation and infrastructure, and drug use and deaths.

In their campaign ads, the main ingredients are Stein swinging away at Robinson on abortion, and Robinson hitting back at Stein being in step with national Democrats’ responsibility for higher prices.