(The Center Square) – Election interference by a major political party, disenfranchising its primary voters, and refusal to defend ideas have been laid out and expressly directed to North Carolina voters and those in other battleground states by Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Politicos in the battleground state, through emails with The Center Square on Monday, suggest there is reason to believe the speech will have a light impact on the race between Republican former President Donald Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris.
That, despite the damning accusations from a nephew of Camelot against what the New York Magazine first called Kamalot .
“A recent August poll from the New York Times and Siena College showed Robert Kennedy Jr. winning about 4% of the vote in North Carolina,” said Dr. Peter Francia, director of the Center for Survey Research at East Carolina University. “While that is a respectable number for a minor-party candidate, Kennedy’s following is still relatively small overall across the state and unlikely to have a major impact on North Carolina voters.”
Kennedy’s Friday speech in Arizona coincided with the suspension of his campaign and endorsement of Trump the day after the Democratic National Convention ended. It came in the afternoon timeslot for the East Coast as the weekend was beginning.
He told voters in states securely red and blue that voting for him would be appreciated.
“But in about 10 battleground states," Kennedy said, "where my presence would be a spoiler, I’m going to remove my name, and I’ve already started that process and urge voters not to vote for me.”
Ballot printing was already underway in North Carolina. Absentee-by-mail ballots will go out in 11 days, in-person early voting is 52 days away, and Election Day is a mere 71 days away. The Center Square queried 10 observers of the state’s politics and campaigns, including directors of the polls produced at East Carolina University, High Point University, Elon University and Meredith College.
“The timing only matters,” Francia added, “in that it shifts some of the current political discussion away from last week’s Democratic convention.”
Kennedy said, “Lacking confidence that its candidate could win a fair election at the voting booth, the DNC waged continual legal warfare against both President Trump and myself.”
Nicole Shanahan, Kennedy’s running mate, wrote on social media last week of Trump facing six court battles during the election “while we have nine and counting across the country.” Trump has had success – a federal case in Washington, D.C., curtailed by an immunity decision; a Florida case getting tossed; a Georgia case pausing after exposure of questionable integrity for the prosecution; and a New York case he lost awaiting sentencing and possible appeal through the sandy foundation of a judge’s math on what constitutes unanimous.
Kennedy, the nephew of former President John F. Kennedy and his wife Jackie, who famously coined Camelot, also said, “When a predictably awful debate performance precipitated a palace coup against President Biden, the same shadowy DNC operatives appointed his successor, also without an election.”
Kennedy said the Democratic Party did its best across the country to keep candidates off the ballot, including in the Democratic primaries. His point is backed up in North Carolina.
U.S. Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota wanted to be on the ballot; the state party instructs the State Board of Elections on who shall be included, and it only submitted Biden’s name.
Kennedy added, “How did the Democratic Party choose a candidate that has never done an interview or debate during the entire election cycle? We know the answers. It did it by weaponizing the government agencies. It did it abandoning democracy. It did it by suing the opposition, and by disenfranchising American voters.”
While Kennedy’s words were strong and his polling numbers respectable for alternative parties, traction is more difficult than normal in a summer with an assassination attempt on Trump, Biden’s social media statement to withdraw from the race followed by days of seclusion afterward, and a litigation lineup needing a scorecard to keep track.
Dallas Woodhouse, North Carolina executive director for American Majority Action, wrote in an email to The Center Square, “Voters have been flooded with changing circumstances and information all summer. However, I suspect voters will begin to sort that information into logical sequences that eventually lead a majority of North Carolina voters to conclude that Joe Biden was losing first and foremost because the public did not like his policies and results and that Harris is more of the same. The change candidate is still Trump in a time when America is begging for it.”
North Carolina’s more than 7.6 million registered voters are 37.6% unaffiliated, 31.6% Democrats, and 29.9% Republicans — a stark change from 20 years ago, when it was 47.6% Democrats, 34.4% Republicans, and 17.7% unaffiliated. Yet, true independence is questioned.
Chris Cooper, a political science and public affairs professor at Western Carolina University, told The Center Square, “The type of voter who is attuned to the daily churn of politics enough to be aware of RFK Jr’s comments is almost certain to be a voter who has already made up their mind.”
In a quieter time, he said, “more of the signal would get through.”
David McLennan, Meredith University professor of political science and director of the Meredith Poll, said Kennedy’s name still on printed ballots could sow confusion. Still, he said the endorsement of Trump by Kennedy has value even if minimal.
“In what is expected to be a very close presidential election in North Carolina,” he said, “even a few thousand votes going to Trump could make a difference.”
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