Report: Tennessee to reach nearly 8M residents by 2040

(The Center Square) – Tennessee is projected to approach a population of 8 million by 2040 and will surpass 9 million by 2070, according to a new analysis from the University of Tennessee’s Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research.

Tennessee first surpassed 7 million residents in 2022 U.S. Census projections.

The projections say the state’s number of adults 65 and over are expected to rise by 25% by 2040. The overall population increased by 900,000 from 2022 to 2040, a 12.6% increase.

The annual growth rates are expected to be 0.82% from 2020 to 2030 and then slow from 0.55% between 2030 to 2040, the analysis says.

“At the state level, the amount of population growth during the 2020s will feel similar to the gains we saw last decade,” said Matt Harris, Boyd Distinguished Professor of Health Economics and co-author of the new projections. “But as the baby boom generation reaches the later stages of life, a rising number of deaths will begin to slow Tennessee’s population increases.”

Those 65 and older are expected to make up 20% of the state’s population by 2040.

“A growing senior population doesn’t just have implications for the health care system,” Harris said. “The full array of senior-oriented services — such as housing, transportation and other types of personal care — will also be in higher demand over the coming years.”

The group of population under the age of 20 is expected to rise from 24.2% in 2022 to 24.4% in 2040, according to the report.