(The Center Square) − The number of students participating in the state-financed Taylor Opportunity Program for Students has declined for the third year in a row, according to a report from the Public Affairs Research Council of Louisiana.
"Nearly 46,000 students received TOPS scholarships in the last school year, totaling more than $270 million," PAR reported. "Compared with levels four years ago, that is a 14% decrease in participation and a $43 million drop in state spending on the program."
This decline represents a reduction of roughly $43 million in state spending, according to the Louisiana Office of Student Financial Assistance. PAR attributes the decline in TOPS participation to the general decline in college enrollment.
A shrinking pool of high school graduates eligible for the scholarships have also contributed to the drop in awards. Since 2017, the number of eligible high school graduates has fallen by over 3,600 students, representing a 17% decrease, according to data compiled by the Louisiana House Fiscal Division.
The decline in enrollment in Louisiana colleges may continue, with experts predicting "a rapid drop in college-age individuals beginning in 2025," according to another report from PAR.
Carleton College professor Nathan Grawe’s map forecasts that by 2029, Louisiana will face a drop in college-bound students ranging between 7.5% and 15%. At least 24 states are expected to see similar declines.
When looking at enrollment patterns across different types of institutions, Louisiana’s four-year universities have consistently outpaced its two-year colleges in student numbers, another trend shared by many states.
This downward trend in two-year college enrollment is not unique to Louisiana. Between fall 2014 and fall 2019, many Southern states also experienced declining numbers at two-year institutions, according to the most recent Southern Regional Education Board data.
Monty Sullivan, the president of the Louisiana Community and Technical College System mentioned in a recent webinar that Louisiana is bouncing back to pre-COVID credit hours.
"Pre-COVID we were at 540,000 credit hours in fall of 2019 was the peak. This fall, we sit about 3 percent below that number," Sullivan said. "The difference is that the loss leaders from pre covid are no longer in place. We were teaching in prisons, where we could not collect the tuition dollar. Or we were teaching new enrollment, where we couldn't recoup the cost of that program."
Sullivan also mentioned record enrollment in some colleges, such as Northshore Technical Community College and Nunez Community College.
The president of PAR, Steven Procipio, echoed Sullivan’s remarks about a short-term bounce back.
"But if you look at some longer trends in terms of enrollment in public schools, I'm a little bit concerned about that," Procipio told The Center Square. "If you have declining enrollment, it's not good for the colleges. It's not good for trying to educate people in the state overall."
Procipio also pointed to the recent changes in the Free Application for Federal Student Aid, which is required to receive TOPS aid, as attributing to the decline in participation.
According to an August report from PAR, the percentage of seniors completing the Free Application for Federal Student Aid in the 2023-24 school year dropped by almost 10 percentage points compared to the previous year.
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