Report: Florida's economic, population growth expected to slow

(The Center Square) – A new report predicts Florida's explosive growth will slow in the next five years.

The second quarter report by the nonprofit Florida Taxwatch and the Regional Economic Consulting Group says that due to smaller population growth (net migration has decreased from 868 new residents each day to 801), employers will have more trouble filling open positions.

The study predicts annual population growth, right now at 1.4% compared to 2023, will start to shrink each year until 2029, when it'll be at 1.1%.

The report says there are 1.6 job openings for every unemployed Floridian. It also predicts the number of employed will increase from 9.96 million this year to 10.7 million by 2029. It also predicts the state's 3.1% unemployment rate will increase to 3.7% by 2027 and decrease slightly to 3.6% by 2029.

These numbers, according to Florida Taxwatch, are 0.6% higher than the projected unemployment rate in the first quarter report.

As far as the state's gross domestic product, the rate of growth is expected to decrease from 5.9% this year to 3.8% by 2029. When inflation is taken into account, the state's real economic output growth will decrease from 3% this year to 1.4% in 2025 and remain steady through 2029.

The report also predicts that per-capita income will increase by 2.1% this year and in 2025, but will taper off to 1.1% by 2029. The report says the 1% increase in per-capita income "suggests that inflation will be on the decline and the spending capabilities of Floridians will be on the rise."

The study also says the number of tourists visiting the state will shrink from the 5.1% growth rate this year compared to the year prior to a low of 2.7% by 2026 before rebounding to 3.3% by 2029.

In 2024, there were 146,199 visitors to the state and that is predicted to grow to 170,133 by 2029.