Election 2024: Republican majority forecast in Georgia House

(The Center Square) – Republicans have majority in the Georgia House of Representatives 102-78.

And with all 180 House seats up for grabs, politicos sharing knowledge with The Center Square forecast Republicans having no trouble maintaining the advantage with more than 90 seats.

“In this year’s House elections, Republicans hope to win at least 100 seats, while Democrats hope to get at least 81 seats which would reduce the GOP to its smallest majority since they took control of the House in the 2004 election,” Dr. Charles S. Bullock III, a professor of political science at the University of Georgia, told The Center Square.

Republicans first took power in Georgia’s Senate in 2002, the same year they took the governor’s seat. Since 2004, when Republicans also took the state House, there has been a Republican trifecta in Georgia’s state government.

Since 2014 when they hit the lowest number of Representatives at only 59, Democrats have slowly been closing the gap.

Voters in only 90 of the 180 districts will even have a choice between a Democrat or a Republican.

“Many state legislative races are uncompetitive or uncontested,” explained Dr. M.V. Hood III, professor of political science at the University of Georgia, to The Center Square. “There may be a few seats that switch hands, but the overall partisan balance will be close to what it is now. I don’t think the GOP is in any jeopardy of losing control of the General Assembly.”

The state Senate is very similarly uncompetitive this election season, with only a few of the 56 seats without an incumbent running for reelection.

While there is little shake-up expected in the House, there are a few seats that Bullock said to keep an eye on as Election Day draws near.

Bullock explained that he believes there is one seat, District 56, that will definitely be a pick-up for Democrats.

“One seat will be a Democrat pickup – the seat currently held by Meesha Mainor, the one Black GOP member,” he said. “Mainor was elected as a Democrat but changed parties over the school voucher issue where she broke ranks and supported the proposal. The district is overwhelmingly Democratic.”

Mainer was first elected in 2020.

Bullock said Republicans should be concerned about holding a few districts, especially after redistricting that was finalized since the last election in 2022.

Those include Districts 149, 48, 53 and 45.

In District 149, Bullock said incumbent Republican Kenneth Vance could be challenged by Democrat Floyd Griffin’s running, especially after the “district was redrawn to become majority Black.”

Republican incumbent Scott Hilton in District 48 is in danger as his district spreads from traditionally-held Republican territory into the suburbs of Atlanta.

In District 53, Republican incumbent Deborah Silcox could be in trouble if there is a strong Democratic turnout, and, while Republican incumbent Sharon Cooper in District 45 is “less vulnerable,” Bullock added that a “strong anti-Trump vote might endanger her.”

Democrats in Districts 105 and 108 should be concerned about a Republican flip, Bullock said.

No state executive offices, besides the public service commissioner, or U.S. Senate seats are on the ballot in Georgia. All 14 congressional seats are up for grabs, though none are forecast to change parties.

Three statewide ballot measures are on the ballot. Two of them deal with property and tax law, while a third would create a Georgia Tax Court.