Election 2024: Few toss-up races in Georgia state Senate elections

(The Center Square) – In just 27 days, Georgia voters will vote on all 56 state Senate seats.

Republicans have a 33-23 majority and politicos sharing information with The Center Square expect minimal changes from this fall's election races.

All terms are two years, meaning a party has the opportunity to greatly influence the party breakdown. Twenty-nine is the magic number for a majority. Because the lieutenant governor is also Republican and has tie-breaking powers, Republicans could win 28 seats and still hold an advantage.

Republicans first took chamber power in 2002, the same year they took the governor’s seat. Since 2004, when Republicans also took the state House, there has been a Republican trifecta in Georgia’s state government.

That said, Democrats have been slowly closing the gap in the Senate since 2016, when they held only 18 seats. The 2022 election led to the smallest margin between the parties since 2002.

Since the last election in 2022, there has been redistricting across Georgia. Dr. Charles S. Bullock III, a professor of political science at the University of Georgia, told The Center Square that he doubts there will be any significant changes in either the state House or Senate, predicting Republicans might only lose “a Senate seat.”

In many districts, incumbents do not even face a challenger from the opposite party.

For example, of the 56 state Senate seats up for grabs, only 24 of them have a candidate from each party running.

This leaves many voters unable to see and choose from an exchange of ideas, limited accountability of campaign promises, much less try to select an alternative candidate.

Only four districts do not have incumbents running for reelection, and two of those have only one party’s candidate running.

Bullock said the only Senate seat he believes could be a toss-up is District 48, “a district that is becoming more diverse" with a growing Asian Indian population. There, Republican incumbent Shawn Still is challenged by Democratic political newcomer Ashwin Ramaaswami.

Districts 34, 38, 49 and 55 are without incumbents seeking reelection. In District 38, only Democrat Rashuan Kemp is running, while in District 49, only Republican Drew Echols is running.

This leaves just District 34 and District 55 as districts where voters do not have an incumbent on the ticket and party options.

In 2022, Democrat Valencia Seay won District 34 with over 80% of the vote, leaving 2024 Democrat candidate Kenya Wicks confident in her election chances. Republican Andrew Honeycutt is challenging.

District 55 is also a Democratic stronghold, where Republicans have not run in recent elections. Republican Mary Benefield is running against Democrat Randal Mangham, who served as a state representative in Georgia’s District 94 from 2001-11.

No state executive offices, besides the public service commissioner, or U.S. Senate seats are on the ballot in Georgia. All 14 congressional seats are up for grabs, though none are forecast to change parties.

Three statewide ballot measures are on the ballot. Two of them deal with property and tax law, while a third would create a Georgia Tax Court.