More budget woes for Seattle as revenue forecast drops $48.6 million

(The Center Square) – A recent revenue forecast for Seattle revealed steep downward projections in collected revenue that leaves the city council a new budget gap amid its budget process.

The latest general fund revenue forecast shows a $48.6 million decrease in revenue from 2024 through 2026 since the proposed 2025-2026 budget was transferred over to the Seattle City Council last month.

When it comes to the size of the downward revenue revision, it’s about .5% of the general fund for 2024, or $6.5 million, 1% ($16.9 million) for 2025, and 1.5% ($25.2 million). So on average, the city is facing a 1% decrease in the general fund over the next three years.

Jan Duras, economist at the Seattle Office of Economic and Revenue Forecasts, called this the worst kind of news the office has delivered in the last four years.

“The hardest part about this news is we now have about a $20 million gap within the proposed budget we’ve received from the mayor,” Seattle City Councilmember Dan Strauss said in a Select Budget Committee meeting on Tuesday. “We had a hard job before and now it’s even harder.”

One notable decline in revenues is the sales tax and business & occupation tax.

Two years ago, sales tax revenue collection was strong, but the slow down in the second half of 2023 brought the revenue collection down. According to Duras, a lot of that is due to a slow down of the construction sector.

The leading indicator for the construction sector is the value of construction permits in Seattle. Construction permits are issued by the Seattle Department of Constructions and Inspection, which has declined from $3.8 billion in 2021 to $2.8 billion in 2023.

For the 12 months ending last September, the value of permits issued was $2.6 billion, which is $1.7 billion less than the 2016-2019 average of $4.3 billion, according to a presentation .

“The fact that the sales tax is declining on a year-over-year basis outside of a recession is really quite unprecedented,” Duras said. “In history there have been periods where sales tax in nominal terms was declining year-over-year during the recessions."

Strauss anticipates that the city council will have to make difficult decisions regarding the budget next week.