How Mississippi State football’s path to a bowl game changed after Arizona State loss

Mississippi State football’s early nonconference game against Arizona State was always going to be an inflection point for its bowl game hopes.

Win, and you feel good about MSU making a bowl in coach Jeff Lebby’s first season. Lose, and the path looks much more difficult.

Mississippi State lost 30-23 at Arizona State on Saturday night. The Sun Devils (2-0) look like they might be better than their projected last-place finish in the Big 12 preseason poll, but this was a game MSU (1-1) needed, especially with a gruesome SEC schedule on the way.

Let’s examine MSU’s bowl-game path moving forward.

SEC road games still look like losses

Mississippi State couldn’t have asked for a much tougher SEC road schedule. The only team missing is Alabama.

All four of its road opponents are living up to the high preseason expectations so far. It’s difficult to see the Bulldogs forging a win against them, who are all 2-0 through Week 2.

Texas smashed Michigan on Saturday, Georgia had a blowout win over Clemson in Week 1, Tennessee and quarterback Nico Iamaleava cruised past NC State in a neutral-site game Saturday, and Ole Miss outscored Furman and Middle Tennessee State by a combined 128-3.

Win one of those four and the narrative changes, but that doesn’t seem likely.

Where can Mississippi State find 6 wins?

Let’s give Mississippi State wins in its two remaining nonconference games against Toledo and UMass. Both of those games are at home.

That gives the Bulldogs three wins. They would have to win three out of four of their SEC home games to clinch a bowl game.

First up is Florida on Sept. 21, the SEC opener. The Gators were embarrassed at home in Week 1 by Miami as Billy Napier’s seat seems as hot as any coach's in the sport. Starting quarterback Graham Mertz was injured in that game, so five-star freshman DJ Lagway started and dazzled in Week 2 against Samford. Mertz is in concussion protocol , according to The Gainesville Sun.

Texas A&M, who was ranked No. 20 in the preseason US LBM Coaches Poll , is 1-1 with a loss to Notre Dame and a win against McNeese State. The Aggies play at Florida this week.

MORE: Introducing Sam Sklar, the Clarion Ledger’s new Mississippi State beat reporter

Arkansas is also 1-1 with a blowout win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff and an overtime loss at Oklahoma State. It remains to be seen if the Razorbacks are improved, but they have a new talented dual–threat quarterback in Taylen Green.

Missouri is ranked in the top 10 and hasn’t conceded a point in wins against Murray State and Buffalo.

Can Mississippi State find three wins there? At this point, it remains difficult to say.

Sam Sklar is the Mississippi State beat reporter for the Clarion Ledger. Email him at ssklar@gannett.com and follow him on X @sklarsam_ .

This article originally appeared on Hattiesburg American: How Mississippi State football’s path to a bowl game changed after Arizona State loss