Clemson's Road to College Football Playoff - Each week TCI examines the Tigers' road back to the College Football Playoff

Another week, another win for the Clemson Tigers, putting Dabo Swinney’s program one step closer to returning to the College Football Playoff for the first time since the 2020 season.

With the new 12-team format, Clemson has multiple paths to the playoff. Obviously, the most direct would be to win the ACC outright, as the five highest-ranked conference champions receives automatic bids. The four highest-ranked champions will receive first-round byes.

With the divisions being scrapped ahead of this season, the top two teams in the conference will lock up a spot in Charlotte. Right now, the Tigers are 4-0 in league play, two games ahead of Miami, SMU and Pitt in the win column, as all three are currently 2-0. Those are the four teams that currently look to be vying for that automatic bid.

Remaining Opponents

No. 10 Clemson (5-1, 4-0 ACC): vs. Virginia, vs. Louisville, at Virginia Tech, at Pitt, vs. Citadel, vs. South Carolina

As stated last week, the Tigers have a manageable slate the rest of the way, and one more loss certainly doesn’t end their ACC Championship hopes. However, it would take their fate out of their own hands. Back-to-back road games in November won’t be easy and the South Carolina matchup looks much tougher than it did in the preseason.

No. 6 Miami (6-0, 2-0 ACC): at Louisville, vs. Florida State, vs. Duke, at Georgia Tech, vs. Wake Forest, at Syracuse

The Hurricanes were off over the weekend, but as noted last week, could easily have two conference losses already. Controversial calls saved them against Virginia Tech and Cal in their only two ACC contests to this point. However, like Clemson, Miami has a very manageable slate the rest of the way. The Florida State game is a rivalry matchup, but the Seminoles are 1-5 and playing for nothing but pride. Road games at Louisville, Georgia Tech and Syracuse will be possible landmines.

No. 20 Pitt (6-0, 2-0 ACC): vs. Syracuse, at SMU, vs. Virginia, vs. Clemson, at Louisville, at Boston College

The Panthers are the surprise of the ACC, but are they running on borrowed time? They had fourth quarter rallies to beat Cincinnati and West Virginia earlier this year and were lucky to beat Cal last week. Syracuse is going to be a tough out and then they travel to SMU before hosting Clemson on Nov. 16.

No. 21 SMU (5-1, 2-0 ACC) : at Stanford, at Duke, vs. Pitt, vs. Boston College, at Virginia, vs. Cal

Like Miami, the Mustangs had the weekend off. On paper, SMU looks like it has the easiest path to Charlotte. The toughest remaining matchups will all be at home. Of those teams, Pitt could be the one with the best shot to spoil SMU’s hopes. Although, as we all know, games aren’t played on paper. So far though, their only loss is to unbeaten BYU, who ranks No. 13 in the latest AP Poll.

Clemson as an At-Large Team

With the new 12-team format, there is also the possibility of Clemson getting in at 11-2. Should the Tigers win out but lose in the ACC Championship Game, Clemson could be in position to earn an at-large spot.

How?

The first College Football Playoff rankings come out on Nov. 5. With Clemson currently No. 10 in the AP Poll, chances are they will be ranked inside of the Top 10 if they can hold serve over the next two games. The Tigers have a bye sandwiched between home games against Virginia and Louisville before the initial set of rankings.

Win out the rest of the way and Clemson will likely be firmly entrenched inside the Top 10 and maybe in the top 5. A loss to, let’s say a Top 5 Miami team might not knock them out of contention.

If there were a three-team tie atop the conference standings, there is the possibility of Clemson running the table, finishing 11-1, unbeaten in league play, and still not make it to the ACC Championship Game. Although, if the Tigers finish inside of the Top 10, it is likely they get in.

Who is in Contention with the Tigers?

Here is a look at what is left for some of the teams the Tigers could be competing against for an at-large spot.

In the Big Ten, Oregon picked up a big win over Ohio State on Saturday night. Penn State and Indiana both picked up wins as well, keeping all three unbeaten. With the new format, though, the Buckeyes are very much still in the hunt, as the loss only dropped them two spots to No. 4 in the AP Poll.

Oregon (6-0, 3-0 Big 10): at Purdue, vs. Illinois, at Michigan, vs. Maryland, at Wisconsin, vs. Washington

The win over Ohio State puts the Ducks in the drivers seat to lock up one of the spots in the Big Ten Championship Game. However, a matchup with Michigan in the Big House still looms large.

Penn State (5-0, 2-0 Big 10): at Wisconsin, vs. Ohio State, vs. Washington, at Purdue, at Minnesota

The Nittany Lions knocked off Southern Cal over the weekend to remain perfect on the season. Their fate still lies in their own hands and they do get Ohio State at home.

Ohio State (5-1, 2-1 Big 10): vs. Nebraska, at Penn State, vs. Purdue, vs. Northwestern (in Chicago), at Indiana, vs. Michigan

With the loss to Oregon, the game at Penn State will go a long ways towards deciding the Buckeyes’ fate for a Big Ten Championship. Although a loss would not completely knock them out of contention for an at-large bid.

Indiana (6-0, 3-0 Big 10): vs. Nebraska, vs. Washington, at Michigan State, vs. Michigan, at Ohio State, vs. Purdue

The Hoosiers remain the dark-horse here but the schedule is about to get much tougher. Home against Michigan and a trip to Ohio State are upcoming. Four of their final six games are at home.

SEC Bias

Texas continued its march to Atlanta with an absolute drubbing of rival Oklahoma. As much as SEC fans like to beat their chests about how tough that league is, it won’t be a good look for the old Big 12 team to come in and run roughshod over the conference in its first season.

Texas A&M remains the only other unbeaten in SEC play after a bye week, but there are four one-loss teams all looking to secure a spot in the playoff too.

Having said all that, let’s be real. Depending on how things shake out at the top of the league standings, the SEC is bound to get at least one two-loss team in as an at-large. It would not even be all that shocking to see a three-loss team get in at some point as we move closer and closer to the playoff basically becoming the Big Ten-SEC invitational.

Texas (6-0, 2-0 SEC): vs. Georgia, at Vanderbilt, vs. Florida, at Arkansas, vs. Kentucky, at Texas A&M

This Texas team is for real. One of the best teams money can buy. And the Longhorns don’t have one of the tougher SEC slates. Their toughest remaining challenge comes this week with Georgia coming to town, though Texas A&M could be a tough game, as well. We could even see Texas and Texas A&M rematch in the SEC Championship Game if both teams win out heading into the regular-season finale.

Texas A&M (5-1, 3-0 SEC): at Mississippi State, vs. LSU, at South Carolina, vs. New Mexico, at Auburn, vs. Texas

The Aggies still have some challenges ahead. LSU at home won’t be easy and neither will the road game against South Carolina. Then comes the Longhorns to finish up the regular season.

Alabama (5-1, 3-1 SEC): at Tennessee, vs. Missouri, at LSU, vs. Mercer, at Oklahoma, vs. Auburn

One week after losing to Vanderbilt, South Carolina had the Crimson Tide on the ropes in Tuscaloosa, Ala. This is a team that looks to have some weaknesses and this week they face another stiff challenge with a trip to Knoxville, Tenn.

Georgia (5-1, 3-1 SEC) : at Texas, vs. Florida, at Ole Miss, vs. Tennessee, UMass, vs. Georgia Tech

The Bulldogs have their work cut out for them and it starts this week with top-ranked Texas. Kirby Smart’s team also has to travel and face a dangerous Ole Miss squad on the road before returning home to face Tennessee.

Tennessee (5-1, 2-1 SEC): vs. Alabama, vs. Kentucky, vs. Mississippi State, at Georgia, vs. UTEP, at Vanderbilt

The Vols have a couple of potential pitfalls remaining. Two weeks ago they were upset by Arkansas and this past weekend they needed overtime to get by a less-than-mediocre Florida team at home. One more loss just might do Tennessee in.

Can the Big 12 Get an At-Large Bid?

Iowa State beat West Virginia to remain unbeaten and actually jumped Clemson in the AP Poll, moving up to No. 9. BYU remains unbeaten, as well, but is No. 13 in the poll. Barring a ton of chaos, the chances of the conference getting an at-large team in probably lies somewhere between slim and none.

Iowa State (6-0, 3-0 Big 12): vs. UCF, vs. Texas Tech, at Kansas, vs. Cincinnati, at Utah, vs. Kansas State

Not the toughest of schedules. The Cyclones could very well roll right along and make it to the Big 12 Championship Game unbeaten.

BYU (6-0, 3-0 Big 12): vs. Oklahoma State, at UCF, at Utah, vs. Kansas, at Arizona State, vs. Houston

Another very manageable slate. It is very possible we see two unbeatens vying for the Big 12 title. However, that game at Utah could be a stumbling block for the Cougars.

Independents or Group of 5

Boise State moved up two spots to No. 15 and is currently the highest ranked G5 team. Unbeaten Army is the next highest at No. 23.

Boise State (4-1, 1-0 MWC) : at UNLV, vs. San Diego State, vs. Nevada, at San Jose, at Wyoming, vs. Oregon State

The Broncos road trips to UNLV and Wyoming will likely decide their fate as the Group of 5 Champion in the CFP.

Notre Dame (5-1) : at Georgia Tech, vs. Navy, vs. Florida State, vs. Virginia, vs. Army (Yankee Stadium), at Southern Cal

The Irish are currently No. 12 in the Ap Poll and still go to Georgia Tech and to Southern Cal. One more loss could really hurt their chances. Two more and they absolutely are done in the CFP race.

What would the CFP matchups look like if the CFP began this weekend?

Going off the latest Associated Press Rankings, these would be the 12-teams participating (Note, the AP Poll is not used in the CFP rankings).

1. Texas
2. Oregon
3. Penn State
4. Ohio State
5. Georgia
6. Miami
7. Alabama
8. LSU
9. Iowa State
10. Clemson
11. Tennessee
12. Boise State

The conference champions (using the AP Poll as reference):

ACC: Miami

Big Ten: Oregon

Big 12: Iowa State

SEC: Texas

Highest Group of 5 Champion: Boise State

Based off the AP Ranking and possible conference champions, here is what the CFP seedings might look like:

1. Texas
2. Oregon
3. Miami
4. Iowa State
5. Penn State
6. Ohio State
7. Georgia
8. Alabama
9. LSU
10. Clemson
11. Tennessee
12. Boise State

In this scenario, Texas, Oregon, Miami and Iowa State would have automatic byes to the quarterfinals. Boise State would play a first-round playoff game on the road.

Possible CFP Matchups:

For Dec. 20-21 CFP Games on home fields

No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Penn State

No. 11 Tennessee at No. 6 Ohio State

No. 10 Clemson at No. 7 Georgia

No. 9 LSU at No. 8 Alabama

2024-25 College Football Playoff schedule, dates, TV channel, sites

All times Eastern

• First round (Dec. 20-21)
  • Friday, Dec. 20: 8 p.m. | ABC/ESPN
  • Saturday, Dec. 21: 12 p.m. | TNT Sports
  • Saturday, Dec. 21: 4 p.m. | TNT Sports
  • Saturday, Dec. 21: 8 p.m. | ABC/ESPN
• Quarterfinals (Dec. 31-Jan. 1)
  • Fiesta Bowl: 7:30 p.m. Tuesday, Dec. 31 | ESPN
  • Peach Bowl: 1 p.m. Wednesday, Jan. 1 | ESPN
  • Rose Bowl: 5 p.m. Wednesday, Jan. 1 | ESPN
  • Sugar Bowl: 8:45 p.m. Wednesday, Jan. 1 | ESPN
• Semifinals (Jan. 9-10)
  • Orange Bowl: 7:30 p.m. Thursday, Jan. 9 | ESPN
  • Cotton Bowl: 7:30 p.m. Friday, Jan. 10 | ESPN
• CFP National Championship
  • 7:30 p.m. Monday, Jan. 20 | ESPN

Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia

A limited number of signed replica road signs from Cade Klubnik are available!  Visit Clemson Variety & Frame or purchase online!