Lytle: Pac-12 rebuild has been wobbling. What to know and what could be next

The new Pac-12 is currently losing the PR game.

It does not mean the Pac-12 rebuild will end up a failure.

Both statements are true.

It's been a wild week, but this is a long play.

Here’s what to know about what’s happened and what could be next. And, as best as I can figure, what it all means right now.

Who is where between the Pac-12 and Mountain West?

This week has felt like a month. On Monday there was a point where it looked like the Pac-12 rebuild could be in serious trouble as the Mountain West tried to keep all members.

But Utah State flipped to the Pac-12. That gave the Pac seven members and the Mountain West six full members, plus Hawaii (football-only).

UNLV seemed likely to follow to the Pac-12 and Air Force was on the edge.

Now, both stayed. They’ve signed on to remain in the Mountain West. The league announced the seven remaining MW programs signed a new deal through 2032. A structured system will give bonus payouts from the fees coming in from the Pac-12 and departing teams. Air Force and UNLV get a whopping 24.5% each. Nevada, New Mexico, San Jose State and Wyoming get 11.5% each and Hawaii 5%.

The Pac-12 is currently suing the MW over the "poaching fee" owed.

So, the Pac-12 (beginning in 2026) is currently:

• Oregon State
• Washington State
• Colorado State
• Fresno State
• San Diego State
• Boise State
• Utah State

The Mountain West is:

• UNLV
• Air Force
• Nevada
• New Mexico
• Wyoming
• San Jose State
• Hawaii (football-only)

Let’s compare the new Pac-12 and the Mountain West

Here’s where the optics may differ from reality. It didn’t look very good for the Pac-12 this week as teams from the American (led by Memphis) turned the rebuild down. The MW was able to keep most of its core.

It has looked like the Pac-12’s bid to steal the top from the Group of 5 leagues is flailing. And, in a way, that’s quite true right now.

But, it’s not all bad. The new Pac still has much better football overall than the MW (and, as harsh as this is to say out loud, football and to a much lesser extent men's basketball are the two sports involved in realignment conversation. Which is not good for NCAA athletics).

Oregon State, Washington State, Boise State and Fresno State make up a strong core of recent and historical football success. This core should have a solid chance to make a league that gets a winner to the College Football Playoff as the best outside the Power 4 most years.

In the MW, Air Force is consistently good and UNLV is in a hot stretch, but right now it's an outlier to their historical (lack of) success.

In men’s basketball, the Pac also has big-time programs, led by San Diego State, with CSU, Utah State, Washington State and Boise State providing an excellent core. The MW has some power there with New Mexico, Nevada and UNLV, but the Pac still looks strong.

Would you want your conference to pay UNLV or Air Force $25 million? That’s a risk (if the Pac wanted them so bad, they would have grabbed them in the first round along with CSU and others who joined).

Will it pay off for the Pac? We don’t know.

It’s a $17 million exit fee for the MW teams and we don’t know what the new media rights deal will land. If it’s roughly double the $6 million they get in the MW right now, then it could be just fine. If it's just a couple million boost, then the finances could get sticky.

But it’s all projections right now.

What could and should be next?

The Pac-12 still needs to add one full member by 2026 to be full status with the NCAA. The Mountain West will need to add two members (since Hawaii is football only, their count is officially at six).

The public nature of the Pac-12 misses has made it look bad right now, but it can still work out. The league could make another run at the American teams down the road. Memphis athletic director Ed Scott said the Pac-12 deal offered to Memphis wasn't good enough but was far from closing the door on the idea of re-engaging in discussions (hello, public negotiation!).

Gonzaga conversations are still not off the table, either. I am a big proponent of making a big swing at making this a basketball power league.

Texas State has made big athletic investments and could be attractive because of its proximity to Austin and San Antonio. Sacramento State is a far outside-the-box candidate to move up from FCS and has publicly campaigned for a bid . Texas and California, obviously, have some attractiveness as media markets. Those feel more like candidates for the MW than the Pac.

These last few weeks have been wild, there are surely wild cards to be played that I haven't thought of. Here's betting the Pac is still going to aim big (I'll be shocked if the Memphis name doesn't come back up).

There’s no clear answer (outside AAC teams). While there is a time element, it doesn’t have to happen this week.

A merger between the Pac and MW that was speculated for months now appears dead. There's too much bad blood.

Could the Pac go to market to get firm numbers from TV partners to take back to candidates? If you can promise $10-$15 million a year on the board, it could get movement.

The biggest takeaways? This is messy. Realignment is uncomfortable in many ways. But it’s also too soon to hand out grades for the reshuffled leagues.

Follow sports reporter Kevin Lytle on X and Instagram @Kevin_Lytle .

This article originally appeared on Fort Collins Coloradoan: Lytle: Pac-12 rebuild has been wobbling. What to know and what could be next