Can Memphis make College Football Playoff in 2024? Best-case scenario for the Tigers

You've heard it all offseason: Memphis football has high expectations for 2024.

It makes sense. The Tigers are positioned well for the first year of the expanded College Football Playoff , which will guarantee a spot for a Group of Five champion. Memphis is at or near the top of most preseason projections for that spot.

Those projections have fans dreaming about where the Tigers will be in December. So, if everything goes right for Memphis, how far could the Tigers go?

Let's take a look at the best-case scenario for Memphis in 2024.

Memphis beats Florida State — but the Seminoles turn their season around

Memphis' trip to Tallahassee is already a cherry-on-top type game, where the Tigers don't need to win to make the playoff. The luster came off a little bit when Florida State dropped its opener against Georgia Tech, but Memphis is actually best-served to root for the Seminoles for the rest of the season.

Consider this scenario: Memphis goes to Tallahassee and wins convincingly. The Seminoles, 1-2 at that point, are in soul-searching mode. But Mike Norvell rights the ship, and Florida State runs the table the rest of the way — save for a loss to Notre Dame in a non-conference game. That would leave the Seminoles with only one conference loss, potentially earning them a spot in the ACC title game.

And the Seminoles win the title game, heading to the playoff as a 10-3 team. More on them later.

Memphis goes undefeated in the regular season, wins AAC championship game

Stranger things have happened. The Tigers have four games on their schedule that it would probably be fair to say could go either way: Florida State, South Florida, UTSA and Tulane. While you could theoretically peg Memphis for an 8-4 record and have all those games be losses, we'll stick with wins for the sake of this scenario.

It's probably too outrageous, especially based on last season, to say the Tigers will cruise through this entire schedule. There will be some tough games, but Memphis gets through the regular season unscathed.

The Tigers then host the American Athletic Conference title game at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium and win that, too — probably over Tulane.

Memphis makes the College Football Playoff ... and gets a bye

The assumption for most preseason projections is that the Group of Five champion will get the No. 12 seed in the playoff. That's understandable, considering that team is often ranked outside the top 12 in the final rankings.

But remember: The top four seeds have to go to four conference champions. And remember who won the ACC? Florida State, with a 9-3 record and a loss to Memphis. There's almost no chance the Seminoles could be ranked ahead of the Tigers, and so Memphis grabs the No. 4 spot in the bracket.

And so, instead of playing on the road against a higher-seeded power conference team, Memphis waits and watches the first round of the playoff at home — and then heads to the Peach Bowl as the higher-seeded team. There, the Tigers face the No. 5 seed: old friend Dan Lanning and No. 5 Oregon.

Like we said, stranger things.

Reach sports writer Jonah Dylan at jonah.dylan@commercialappeal.com or on X @thejonahdylan.

This article originally appeared on Memphis Commercial Appeal: Can Memphis make College Football Playoff in 2024? Best-case scenario for the Tigers