What should Memphis Grizzlies fans expect from rookie Zach Edey? Here's what history suggests

Rookie NBA center Zach Edey will join the Memphis Grizzlies with expectations that nearly stack up to his 7-foot-4 frame.

Should he start? Could he average a double-double? Will he help the Grizzlies return to the top of the Western Conference?

No matter what your answers are, many agree that Edey’s results will have a major impact on where Memphis ends up. That’s a lot to put on a rookie, but Edey, the No. 9 pick, enters the NBA as one of the most accomplished college basketball players in history.

There have been several NBA centers who have been top 10 picks the past 10 years. That span is a good data point because that’s when the league saw a drastic shift in the number of 3-pointers taken, which led to teams emphasizing more guard-oriented play.

Many centers today are asked to protect the rim on defense and make the most efficient and simple offensive plays. In a nutshell, this will be his role in Memphis.

Here’s how Edey projects, based on recent draft selections of centers.

The overall results

Since 2015, 14 centers have been drafted in the top 10. Seven of those players averaged double figures as rookies. Six of those seven were top-three picks in their respective drafts. Wendell Carter (No. 7) is the lone other top-10 pick center to average double figures as a rookie since 2015. Myles Turner, No. 11 pick in the 2015 draft, also accomplished this feat. If Edey averages double figures as a rookie, he would join Turner and Carter as the only non-top-five pick centers to do so since 2015.

Other than 2023 No. 1 overall pick Victor Wembanyama, Dereck Lively was the next most productive center in the 2023 class. He finished the season with 8.8 points and 6.9 rebounds a game in 42 starts.

How did rookie centers find success

Rookie centers tend to have a steeper learning curve than other NBA positions. Jakob Poeltl and Zach Collins are examples of top-10 picks who were brought along slowly before becoming effective NBA starters. Poeltl’s skill set may be the most comparable to Edey’s of recent lottery-selected centers. Poeltl became a starter in his fifth NBA season, but he also was playing behind Jonas Valanciunas and LaMarcus Aldridge. Memphis doesn’t have that kind of roadblock in front of Edey.

Most young centers make their initial impacts on defense. Since 2016, of the 11 centers drafted in the top 10, only Deandre Ayton and Chet Holmgren had a better offensive box plus-minus than their defensive numbers. For others, there was a sizable difference, with much worse offensive numbers. Based on these numbers, Edey’s defense should be the easier skill to translate quicker to the NBA.

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How did they fail

There’s such a big difference between NBA and college basketball stylistically, and that’s a major reason why centers can develop slower than other positions. Spacing and quicker pace favors guards and wings. NBA centers who are slow on their feet are played off the floor and stuck in reserve roles as offensive or defensive specialists. Edey’s ability to play in space on offense and defense will be key to his development.

A dynamic scoring guard or wing with questionable defense can be covered up, but it’s not the same with bigs. Many of the recent highly drafted centers who haven’t become consistent starters are not productive on both sides of the floor. Most of them showed defensive potential, but bigs who can expose mismatches offensively in a switch-heavy league are gold. The Grizzlies are hoping they found their lucky charm in Edey.

Damichael Cole is the Memphis Grizzlies beat writer for The Commercial Appeal. Contact Damichael at damichael.cole@commercialappeal.com . Follow Damichael on X, formerly known as Twitter, @DamichaelC.

This article originally appeared on Memphis Commercial Appeal: What should Memphis Grizzlies fans expect from rookie Zach Edey? Here's what history suggests