A year after Hamas attack, more continuity than change for the Palestinians and Israel
By Michal Ben-Josef Hirsch, Suffolk University,
4 days ago
The rapid pace of unfolding events between Israel and the Palestinians, and more broadly in the Middle East, can make people think change is inevitable.
Political scientists like me sometimes see significant and disruptive events, such as the Hamas attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, and their aftermath as drivers of heightened uncertainty with the potential to drive broader change .
But in the year since then, not much has changed.
Relatively stable status quo on Oct. 6
Throughout the early part of 2023, the relationship between Israel and the Palestinians and the broader region seemed generally stable. In September 2023, U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan declared that the Middle East was “ quieter than it has been in two decades .”
The Palestinians widely believed that their representatives – the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank and Hamas in the Gaza Strip – were corrupt and deserved little or no public trust . At the same time, Palestinian factionalism and the divide between the West Bank and Gaza was unbridgeable .
Israeli society had experienced nine months of popular demonstrations against conservative government reforms, including proposed limits on judicial power. In fact, elements of Israeli democracy , including its laws and liberal values, had been weakening for many years .
Israel’s relations with the Palestinians were stable, if tense . Israel exercised military control over the Palestinians living in the occupied West Bank.
Israel’s approach to managing its conflict with the Palestinians relied on surveillance technology and intelligence-gathering to provide border security with Gaza. Periodic military operations were believed to be deterring Hamas from open violence. So were economic incentives, such as millions of dollars in cash given to Hamas through Qatar and work permits for Gaza residents to enter Israel.
For other key countries in the Middle East, including Egypt and Saudi Arabia, less focus on the Palestinian issue was also convenient. Their national security goals of countering rising Iranian power aligned with those of Israel.
Pundits and analysts saw the Oct. 7 attack and the ensuing Israel bombing campaign and then ground invasion of Gaza as creating an opportunity for change .
Suggestions for action included resuming political negotiations for a Palestinian state, reforming the Palestinian Authority to restore its legitimacy, and getting neighboring countries involved in securing and rebuilding Gaza in exchange for improved diplomatic relations with Israel.
A year later, little of what people imagined could happen has happened.
The Palestinian Authority focuses on its own survival amid growing instability in the West Bank , including violence from Israeli settlers, operations by the Israeli military and resistance by Palestinian militants.
The U.S. was active, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken visiting the region nine times, and President Joe Biden officially embracing negotiations for a cease-fire and a hostage deal in the short term, and regional negotiations in the long term. After one cease-fire and the release of more than 100 hostages , none of these efforts produced further cessation of war or hostage releases.
As the fall election approaches, it is unclear which of the United States’ efforts will continue. Most of the American public – 62% – wants the U.S. to play a minor role, or no role at all , in resolving the Israel-Hamas war.
Wider interests prevail
Other Middle Eastern nations publicly support and often participate in U.S.-led negotiations, but they are all careful to maintain their own interests.
Until the Oct. 1, 2024, missile attacks on Israel, Iran had consistently signaled that its main interest was to avoid a regional war. Its new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, has repeatedly spoken of his desire for a constructive dialogue with the West.
Overall, in spite of nearly a year of fighting and the loss of so many lives, there is more continuity than change. International courts take their time and have limited power. Israel’s democratic backsliding, its 57-year occupation of the Palestinian territories, Palestinian fragmentation and weak governance, and the lack of real commitment by nearby countries and the U.S. continue – and so does the lack of any stable or peaceful resolution.
Michal Ben-Josef Hirsch does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
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