Venezuela: what lies ahead for a country gripped by unrest and intense polarisation?

Before Venezuela’s presidential election on July 28, people were deeply concerned and frightened. Supermarkets were crowded as people stocked up on essentials like food and water in preparation for possible protests. They feared a rigged election that could lead the country into a new era of crisis, marked by unrest and repression.

I have been in Venezuela since July and observed firsthand the fallout from the disputed election result. Following Nicolás Maduro’s declaration of victory – a claim the US has called an “insult to democracy” – the streets were filled with protesters chanting: “freedom … freedom … Maduro’s going to topple.”

The result has ultimately seen Maduro secure a third consecutive term in office but it has intensified political and social polarisation in Venezuela. Both Maduro’s government and the opposition assert they hold the “only truth”.

In my opinion, this deepening divide and lack of consensus may result in a greater centralisation of power and perpetuate the lack of communication between political factions at a time when greater dialogue is needed to address the country’s deepening economic crisis.

Despite a calm surface with people going about their daily lives, I sensed underlying tension in the days leading up to the vote. On July 23, I spoke to my 90-year-old neighbour who expressed her views on Venezuela’s politics. She supported the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, and lamented the economic hardships facing the country. She predicted “Maduro’s supporters would lose”.

Maduro assumed the presidency in 2013 after the sudden death of his predecessor, Hugo Chávez. Since then, the country’s economy has collapsed due both to a devastating US sanctions regime and mismanagement.

This has resulted in reduced output, hyperinflation, shortages, poverty, poor public services and rampant corruption. The situation has caused more than 7.7 million Venezuelans to flee the country since 2014 – the largest exodus in Latin America’s recent history.

On July 24, I met another neighbour. He was a man in his 50s who expressed joy upon learning I was from Iran. He criticised supporters of the opposition, believing they had no chance, and said he would vote for Maduro.

The polarised atmosphere in the building mirrored wider society. During lunch in the capital, Caracas, a 25-year-old man told me he would vote for González for change and showed me his middle finger, saying: “this is for Maduro.” Overhearing our conversation, a 45-year-old man voiced support for Maduro for his stance against US sanctions, despite wanting change.

On election night itself, Venezuela’s electoral council declared Maduro the winner with nearly 52% of the vote, ahead of González on 44%. Firecrackers went off as Maduro’s supporters celebrated, while opponents chanted “ladrones” (thieves) from their windows. The stage was set for potential conflict between Chavistas and their opponents.

Caracas seemed eerily quiet on the day after the elections, with its shops, restaurants and metro stations closed. It felt like a ghost town. On Libertador Avenue in the east of the city, however, the story was quite different.

The avenue was blocked and trash cans were set on fire by angry protesters supporting González. The sky was filled with smoke, and the city seemed on the brink of chaos. Some protesters wore masks, carried baseball bats and tore down posters of Maduro.

The protests turned more violent and were quickly followed by repression. On August 4, Maduro informed his supporters that around 2,000 people had been arrested during the protests.

What could happen next?

I see two potential scenarios for the country’s future. In the first, Maduro retains power with more centralised control, which diminishes the chances of paving the way to democracy in Venezuela.

The international community’s stance on Venezuela is divided. The US, EU and most countries in the Americas did not recognise the result of the election. But allies like Russia, China, Iran and Cuba praised Maduro’s victory and called for deeper ties.

Following the election, a young Venezuelan reporter in Caracas told to me that “Maduro’s support among Chavistas has shrunk”. And an increased centralisation of his authority could weaken this support further still. However, Maduro can still rely on the backing of certain low-income groups.

This is in large part because of the government’s so-called Gran Misión Vivienda (the Great Housing Mission). Since it was started by Chávez in 2011, the mission has seen the construction of nearly 5 million homes throughout the country for working-class families. While passing through central Caracas, I observed the construction of one such project that aims to build 35 new homes.

The second scenario is a coup which, if successful, could result in the military either retaining control for a long period of time or overseeing a controlled transition to an inclusive government.

The military does remain loyal to the government – after all, the “Bolivarian Revolution” Maduro inherited from Chávez was built with military support in 1998. But González has urged security forces to reconsider their loyalty in light of the government’s crackdown on protesters. In an open letter, he wrote: “We appeal to the conscience of military and police officials to put themselves on the side of the people and of their own families.”

However, the following day, the country’s defence minister and army chief, Vladimir Padrino, said: “We ratify our [the military’s] absolute loyalty to citizen Nicolás Maduro.” The military controls crucial sectors like food imports and distribution, which makes it reluctant to give up power.

Whatever happens, deepening polarisation and a lack of compromise between the opposition and the government may result in a prolonged breakdown in the dialogue required to tackle the country’s political, economic and social problems.