Week 3 in college football signaled the official end of football in the Sunshine State for its two flagship schools. Florida reportedly is moving swiftly toward firing coach Billy Napier after a second embarrassing home loss. Florida State dropped to 0-3 after Memphis handed the Seminoles their second home loss of the season.
Both the Gators and Noles are a combined 0-6 against the spread (ATS) this season, which is something to keep in mind this week as Florida takes on Mississippi State and FSU plays California.
Now let's take a look at the best games from the opening betting lines in college football for Week 4. Keep in mind, the numbers tend to fluctuate as the week progresses, sometimes rapidly, so the reasons to take a team now may not be best to lock in on later.
Here’s a look at the fantastic four:
U of L coach Jeff Brohm has an 11-6 career record ATS while coming off a bye week. The Cardinals are also 6-2 ATS as home favorites under Brohm.
Is that enough to lay the points and jump on the Cards? Well, there’s more to consider. The Yellow Jackets have covered in all three meetings against U of L as ACC foes.
The Cards have to contain Tech quarterback Haynes King running the ball better than they did Jacksonville State’s Tyler Huff, who rushed for 101 yards and a score.
I’m expecting this game to play out a lot like last year’s season opener in Atlanta. The Cards won the game, but Georgia Tech is good enough to make it a tight game.
The pick: Take the Jackets.
The Sooners hadn’t been home underdogs during coach Brent Venables ' three seasons at the helm until now. And it’s with good reason. OU hasn’t seen an offense like Tennessee this season.
Redshirt freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava has lived up to the hype for the Volunteers, ranking 12th nationally in passing efficiency. Iamaleava has made the transition from Joe Milton rather seamless.
The Vols are explosive offensively and have eviscerated both the spread and the over every game so far, so the question is can Oklahoma keep up with their scoring?
I’m guessing not.
The pick: Take the Vols.
Take the Trojans .
Take the Trojans.
Take the Trojans.
Michigan still doesn’t know who its quarterback should be. Starter Davis Warren was intercepted three times in the win over Arkansas State. Backup Alex Orji is limited in what he can do in the passing game.
More bad news came out of last Saturday’s game when star tight end Colston Loveland , who is arguably their best weapon, left early in the third quarter with an injury.
All the Wolverines have going for them offensively is their running game. But this isn’t the USC defense of the recent past few years that could be run through and run over.
Expect USC quarterback Miller Moss to exploit the Wolverines defense in the same way Texas’ Quinn Ewers did.
The pick: No surprise waiting here, take the Trojans.
The Bearcats opened as six-point favorites, and the temptation is to bet on Houston. What gives pause is that Cincinnati is 6-1-1 at home against the spread in series history against the Cougars. But there’s a better play entirely here.
Cincinnati’s offense isn’t the fastest-moving bunch, and Houston is even less inclined to play with pace. Fewer plays and fewer possessions equal fewer points.
The Cougars haven’t had a game go over the total all season. The Bearcats have just had one — the opener against Towson that cleared by a half point.
The pick: Take the under.
Last week I was half a point away from a winning record, but Tulane’s 34-19 loss at Oklahoma didn’t cover the 14.5 spread. Along with the loss on Kentucky, it was just a 2-2 week with wins on Boston College and Pittsburgh.
Record last week: 2-2
Overall record: 4-5
Reach sports columnist C.L. Brown at clbrown1@gannett.com , follow him on X at @CLBrownHoops and subscribe to his newsletter at profile.courier-journal.com/newsletters/cl-browns-latest to make sure you never miss one of his column s.
This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: C.L.'s college football Week 4 picks against the spread: Will Louisville, Michigan cover?
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