Tropics wake up; models show Gulf trend

The tropics were quiet for several weeks after Hurricane Debby brought about major flooding to most of Florida and the East Coast.

It's waking up again with a tropical wave traveling toward the Caribbean.

Formation chance through the next week was increased to 40% Thursday, according to a National Weather Service report.

"Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by early next week while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph and approaches the Lesser Antilles," the NWS report stated.

The system is expected to move across portions of the eastern Caribbean Sea by the middle of next week.

While it is much too early to tell exactly what direction the storm will track, hurricane forecasting models like the EURO and GFS predict where it may go, and become more accurate as the storm grows stronger.

EURO models forecasting the storm to a southern track in the Caribbean Sea before turning northward and moving across the middle of Cuba, likely entering the Gulf of Mexico after Sept. 8 as a hurricane.

The GFS model is forecasting a similar track with the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by Sept. 9, and making partial landfall as a potential Category 2 hurricane in the Southwest Florida region.

Forecasters will continue to monitor the tropical wave.